The global oil market will lose at least 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products due to the Middle East conflict, even if fighting ends immediately, Vitol's Russell Hardy warned at the FT Commodities Global Summit. Since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in February, attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz closure have cut production by roughly 12 million barrels per day.

Hardy described this as the most severe energy market disruption in his nearly 40-year career, surpassing even the 1990 Gulf War. The loss of 1 billion barrels equals about 10 days of global oil consumption and more than double the strategic reserve releases used during previous crises. Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, estimates 600-700 million barrels have already been lost.

Other industry leaders echoed the warning. Gunvor CEO Gary Pedersen emphasized the real ramifications of prolonged energy supply chain disruptions, while Gunvor's Frederic Lassere predicted a global recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond July. Trafigura's Saad Rahim called the current moment a critical inflection point, noting that even optimistic reopening scenarios would leave the market short 450 million barrels of refined products by May's end.