OPL 245 split into four licenses operated by Shell and Eni marks a pivotal shift in Nigeria’s oil industry, resolving a decades-long corruption dispute. The block, one of Africa’s largest deepwater reserves, had been stalled due to legal battles and allegations involving Shell, Eni, and Nigerian officials. While acquitted in Italy in 2021, the resolution under President Tinubu’s administration signals renewed investor confidence in the sector’s viability after years of mismanagement.

Oil production surged to an average of 1.5mn barrels per day in 2024-2025, an 8% increase from 2024, reversing declines seen under previous leadership. Tinubu’s focus on security to curb pipeline theft and regulatory overhauls—including tax breaks and leadership changes at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC)—have attracted $5.3bn in upstream investment, ending a decade of stagnation. However, output remains below its 2mn-barrel daily peak in the early 2000s, with experts citing slow implementation of reforms and persistent corruption.

Local firms like Seplat (acquiring ExxonMobil’s assets) and Oando (taking over Eni’s Nigerian operations) are reshaping the industry, while Chappal Energies faces financial turmoil after acquiring Equinor’s deepwater shares. These shifts reflect global rivals’ retreat from Nigeria’s onshore sector due to theft and environmental conflicts, creating opportunities for domestic players. Yet challenges persist, including delays in licensing 50 new blocks and pushback against NNPC revenue reforms aimed at curbing mismanagement.

Tinubu’s executive order mandating NNPC revenue payments into national accounts could boost government finances but risks labor unrest. Analysts stress that while regulatory changes are “a big game changer,” execution remains uneven. With oil contributing 65% of Nigeria’s annual revenue, the sector’s trajectory is critical to economic recovery. As competition for African investment intensifies, Nigeria’s ability to stabilize oil output will determine its regional influence.