Liberia stands on the brink of losing a key development‑bank lifeline unless it finalises a carbon‑credit sales framework. The African Development Bank has tied a portion of its budget support to the country’s approval of a system that would let airlines purchase credits from Liberia’s rainforests to offset emissions. The pressure comes as airlines such as British Airways, Emirates and Ryanair face mandatory offsetting by 2028.

Liberia’s government has been scrambling to draft a policy, but experts warn that rushing could undermine future revenue and community rights. A draft framework released last month capped local benefits at 50 % after tax and as low as 10 % for certain ownership models, sparking protests from NGOs that fear a loss of control over forest land.

The African Development Bank, which last year approved a $20 million loan facility to Liberia’s private banks, has not yet signed off on the 2026 budget. Its carbon‑support facility remains under design, with a focus on “high integrity carbon credit generation.” The bank’s involvement signals that international finance hinges on a transparent, market‑ready framework for investment.

If Liberia delays, airlines will seek other suppliers, potentially missing a $2 billion market projected for 2028. Meanwhile, community groups fear that a rushed agreement could cement unequal profit shares and erode trust in national climate commitments. The outcome will dictate whether Liberia can monetize its forests without compromising governance or social equity for development future.