Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stalled after the US‑Iran cease‑fire deal went into effect. Tracking data showed only four vessels crossed on Wednesday, down from eleven the day before and far below the pre‑conflict average of 140 ships per day. Iran insists the agreement lets the Revolutionary Guard Corps vet each passage and collect a fee, leaving owners in limbo.

The new regime requires tankers to obtain IRGC permission and, reportedly, to pay up to $2mn in cryptocurrency per ship. Those terms have discouraged most operators, with analysts doubting that more than a dozen vessels will transit daily during the two‑week pause. Insurance underwriters now demand proof of IRGC clearance, a document no one knows how to secure, tightening an already opaque risk profile.

With roughly 900 merchant ships stranded in the Gulf and 300 eyeing an exit, the bottleneck threatens cargo timelines and could spur a queueing system once Iran sets a schedule. Major carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd and Stena Bulk warn that normal routing may not resume for six to eight weeks, leaving global oil flows dependent on alternative routes.