Iran's warnings to ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz echo the 1980s tanker war, as retaliatory attacks disrupt energy shipments. Since the US-Israel strikes on Saturday, six tankers have been hit in the Gulf, paralyzing marine traffic. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim responsibility for at least one attack, using drones and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) to target vessels like the US-flagged *Stena Imperative* in Bahrain. Oil prices surged 20% last week, with Suezmax freight rates doubling to $2.5 million per voyage, per *Argus* data. Western nations are scrambling to respond.

The US proposed navy escorts and risk insurance via the Development Finance Corporation, but experts like RBC’s Helima Croft call the plan “conceptual.” The EU considers expanding its Aspides mission to the strait, though French-led efforts remain stalled. Naval analysts warn escorts face anti-ship missiles, drones, and potential mines—technology Iran has stockpiled but not yet deployed. The US Navy’s limited minesweeping capacity (three littoral ships) and legal restrictions on escorting non-US vessels add complexity. Lloyd’s of London now classifies Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar as high-risk zones, worsening insurance costs.

With China as Iran’s top oil buyer, any prolonged closure could backfire economically. As Mark Montgomery notes, securing the strait would “reduce US strike capacity” for weeks. Market volatility looms: even unconfirmed mine reports could spike prices. Concrete impact: Global energy markets face unprecedented uncertainty, with shipping insurance premiums expected to triple by month’s end.