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Investors Predict AI Capex Boom Lifespan is Three Years

Financial Times Companies •
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Senior infrastructure and private capital investors anticipate that the current surge in Artificial Intelligence-driven capital expenditure may have a limited lifespan, projecting the boom to last for three years or less. A survey conducted by Vinson & Elkins revealed that 56 per cent of financiers supporting massive spending on data centers and associated power infrastructure believe the current pace is sustainable for only one to three more years. This sentiment suggests that market participants are preparing for a contraction in easy financing for these projects.

Global spending on data center capex is immense, with KKR reporting $500bn spent in the US in 2025, and McKinsey estimating a global investment nearing $7tn by 2030. This impending slowdown has prompted concerns that projects might need rapid financing and completion before capital markets shift focus. While a minority remain bullish—with one-third predicting the boom continuing for three to five years—the consensus points toward an imminent saturation or pause.

Interestingly, despite acknowledged infrastructure strain, a majority of respondents expressed confidence in regional power grids. However, a significant portion of both investors (57 per cent) and developers (48 per cent) acknowledged that AI development poses a substantial risk of outpacing available power infrastructure capacity. This contrasts with broader industry warnings about the US grid's ability to handle massive electricity demand growth from data centers.