Chinese aluminium firms have turned Indonesia’s Bintan island into a production hub, with a Shandong Nanshan Aluminium‑majority plant now ranking among Southeast Asia’s largest alumina processors. The surge follows Jakarta’s 2023 ban on bauxite exports, forcing miners to add value locally. As Western markets scramble for supply after Middle‑East disruptions, Indonesia is poised to become a key aluminium source significant.

Goldman Sachs projects Indonesia’s share of primary aluminium output to climb from roughly 1 % today to 5 % by 2030, accounting for 40 % of global growth. Analysts warn the Chinese‑driven build‑out could echo the nickel boom that flooded markets and depressed prices. Tsingshan and other China‑backed firms are adding smelters while energy costs elsewhere, from Mozambique to Australia, pressure existing capacity.

Indonesia produced 5.9 million tonnes of alumina in 2023, up from 3.3 million tonnes a year earlier, according to CRU data, and port traffic shows rising imports from Australia and domestic sources. JPMorgan’s Greg Shearer sees the tight global market, worsened by Gulf outages, creating the “largest primary aluminium deficit since 2000.” New Indonesian smelters, expected online from 2027, could fill that gap.