The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that diesel prices in Europe, Africa and Latin America could start rising again within weeks, with a global shortage persisting until mid‑2027. Wholesale diesel hit $220 a barrel in Europe and the US last month — more than double pre‑war levels — while US pump prices averaged $6.28 a gallon.
Conflict in the Middle East and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have drained stockpiles. The IEA said the market “will remain tight well into 2027” and a US‑Russia sanctions‑easing deal is unlikely to add much supply because Russia lacks operational refineries. Energy Aspects noted that refinery restarts discussed at the World Petroleum Congress would take 6‑12 months and be very costly.
Global oil demand is set to fall by 2.6 mn barrels a day this year, with China and several emerging markets reversing growth. South‑east Asia saw deliveries drop 3.7 per cent in the first half of the conflict, prompting a fuel shortage on Bali. Africa’s demand contracted 2.5 per cent year‑on‑year (Egypt down over 12 %), while Latin America remained resilient with a 1.9 per cent rise.
Source: Financial Times Companies · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing