Three months ago Gulf bankers lined up sovereign‑wealth deals and IPOs that had turned the region into a Wall Street hotspot. First‑quarter activity pushed the market toward a $1 bn annual fee target, a milestone never reached in nearly twenty years, signalling a shift to global relevance for investors worldwide.

On Feb 28, the US‑Israel war against Iran dragged Gulf states into a conflict that now spans eleven weeks, halting dealmaking. Advisers focus on delayed timelines, risk factors and lower valuations as institutional capital waits for hostilities to subside before re‑testing prices for potential returns in the next year through a cost‑efficient way.

Dealogic data shows Gulf investment‑bank revenues fell 14 % in the first four months, with mergers and acquisitions hit hardest. Stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi trail pre‑war highs by 9 % and 7 % respectively, while $106 bn of North American and European deals await Gulf commitments for completion in 2024 and beyond.

Despite the slowdown, some Gulf‑backed deals proceed. Adnoc plans tens of billions to build a U.S. natural‑gas business, while Blackstone’s investment in an Abu Dhabi payments firm demonstrates Wall Street confidence. Still, 2026 will not mirror the 2023 breakthrough, and investors will pause until conflict subsides for the next phase.