When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency under Fatih Birol faced a crisis larger than both 1970s oil shocks combined. Despite having no legislative powers and a mere €23 million budget, the IEA launched an unprecedented release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Birol's warnings about "the biggest energy crisis in history" finally broke through governmental complacency.

The crisis exposed a worrying gap in global cooperation. The US and Russia notably absent from international meetings meant "today's world has no room where it happens." While some leaders like Macron and surprisingly US Energy Secretary Wright kept cooperation alive, poor nations were barely heard. Strategic thinking capacity exists in Washington and Beijing, but the American system remains dysfunctional.

Governments comfort themselves with temporary fixes and manageable energy prices. Yet Birol warns these are "temporary sticking plasters" masking deeper problems. Even if Hormuz reopens, geopolitical uncertainty could make it commercially unviable, forcing a redrawing of global energy maps. The concrete reality: governments are not doing the requisite strategic thinking for this new energy landscape.