After saturating Beijing, Shanghai and other tier‑one metros, electric‑vehicle makers are turning to China’s three‑quarter‑of‑urban lower‑tier cities, where petrol cars still hold just under 40 % of sales. EVs already represent half of all new‑car transactions nationwide and dominate most first‑ and second‑tier markets. Analysts say this hinterland is the next battleground for electrification rapidly in China.

Omdia projects EVs will reach the 50 % threshold in lower‑tier cities by late 2027, a shift that could swell China’s export pool of gasoline models. Beijing’s three‑year charging plan aims for 28mn public points by end‑2025, up from 21 mn today, backed by roughly $28bn in spending. Battery leader CATL unveiled cells promising 1,500 km range, narrowing the gap with internal‑combustion rivals.

Legacy automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Toyota and General Motors still rank among China’s top fifteen sellers, but their EV footprints are minimal. VW plans to launch more than 30 electric models by 2030, yet its China chief warns the petrol era will linger, citing existing ICE capacity and potential policy swings. For now, Chinese brands dominate the fast‑moving EV market, squeezing margins across the segment.