With water levels at a historic low on the Rhine this summer, cargo vessels at Europe's busiest port Rotterdam are filled to only 30 per cent capacity, requiring 100 extra barges a week. Lex Bezemer of the Port of Rotterdam Authority calls it "one of the most significant episodes we have experienced in recent decades." The drought developed astonishingly fast; June and July were the hottest on record in western Europe per Copernicus. At Kaub, Germany, the Rhine fell to its lowest level since records began.

Experts estimate a €50bn short-term economic blow, potentially rising to €180bn. Half the EU and UK face drought conditions. Nuclear plants from France to Hungary have cut operations; EDF expects a 10 per cent earnings fall.

Covestro declared force majeure. On the Danube, grain transport costs nearly doubled to €18-€20 per tonne. Italian rice farmers in the Po Valley report losing half their crops.

The ECB estimates extreme drought could cut agricultural value-added growth by 4.5 percentage points. Climate change has "completely broken" the old framework where wet winters prevented summer shortages, says Zurich Insurance's Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali.