European leaders are reacting to a perceived China shock after Volkswagen announced plans to cut 100,000 jobs and idle four German factories, while France's economic planners urged a 30 % tariff or euro‑renminbi devaluation. Yet the broader trade figures tell a different story. Gavekal analyst Cedric Gemehl shows that EU imports from China have risen 42 % since December 2019, while total EU import volume grew only 4 %; Chinese car shipments jumped from 750,000 units in 2023 to just over 1 million in 2025, but they displaced imports from other non‑EU sources, leaving overall import levels flat.

The EU's trade surplus outside China and energy has increased, and export unit values keep climbing, indicating pricing power rather than a competitiveness collapse. In electric vehicles, the bloc is now a net exporter, with EU export unit values roughly double those of imports, a ratio that has held as volumes expanded. The VW case reflects company‑specific and domestic challenges, not a continent‑wide crisis.

Policy should rely on the full trade picture rather than a single automaker's troubles.