Smoke still curls over the Port of Rotterdam, home to one of Europe’s most chemical hubs. Two of the ten major firms have idled plants this year as soaring energy bills, sluggish demand and fierce Chinese competition squeeze margins. The Gulf war has cut off feedstock to Chinese refineries, offering a reprieve, but it also drove naphtha prices higher, tightening the cost squeeze on producers.

Across the EU, plant shutdowns have multiplied sixfold in four years, erasing roughly ten percent of regional capacity and threatening 20,000 jobs, Cefic data show. Investment fell more than 80 % last year, while energy costs remain at least double those in the US and China. Mitsubishi’s abandonment of an MXDA unit in Rotterdam exemplifies the capital drought gripping the sector.

Executives warn that further closures could trigger a domino effect, unraveling the tightly coupled value chains that keep Europe’s chlorine, titanium‑dioxide and epoxy markets alive. LyondellBasell says Rotterdam’s energy bill is three times US levels, and a tighter EU emissions‑trading scheme would double it. With trade surplus down €7.3 bn year‑on‑year, the continent faces a stark choice: preserve its chemical backbone or watch it collapse.