European banks are betting that firms will apply the same “friendshoring” logic to their financing as they have to supply chains. Deutsche Bank chief Christian Sewing told investors clients want a European bank at the table, while Barclays CS Venkatakrishnan and UBS’s Sergio Ermotti voiced similar hopes. The pitch aims to capture firms wary of deeper US ties for companies in a post‑pandemic era.

Europe needs roughly €1.2tn of extra annual investment through 2031 to hit green energy, defence and tech targets, according to the ECB. Banks expect to fund a sizable share through loans, equity and debt markets. Deutsche and Santander see a home‑court advantage, but market data shows only BNP Paribas broke into the continent’s top‑five investment banks by fees last year, and it was still only a modest gain.

Regulators are unlikely to ease constraints; ECB supervisor Claudia Buch warned that lower capital buffers would jeopardise euro‑area resilience. Meanwhile, US rivals continue to out‑spend on long‑term commitments, with JPMorgan extending its $1.5tn security‑and‑resilience programme to European clients. In practice, firms will still gravitate toward the lender offering the best terms, regardless of nationality.