European security agencies are working to establish whether this week's co-ordinated bomb threats against European airlines may have originated in Russia. Dozens of European aircraft were grounded this week after anonymous emails warned of bombs on planes flying between European cities, in what analysts say is a highly unusual attack.
A cross-border investigation between European intelligence and security agencies to trace the origin of the threats is under way, according to intelligence officials. They stressed that there is still a long way to go before any concrete attribution could be made. Attribution is a painstaking process that might not happen quickly, if at all, one added. Some in the intelligence community nevertheless consider Russia the likeliest culprit, citing motive, method, precedent and early forensic clues.
The threats come against the backdrop of an escalating hybrid warfare campaign waged by the Kremlin's agents in Europe this year. A working hypothesis among European intelligence services is that the threats were produced by pro-Kremlin activists or hacking groups. Even so, it would remain unclear what role Russian intelligence services may have played in directing or licensing such activity. No evidence of explosives has been found on the targeted planes, and no obvious pattern to the disruptions has emerged. Intelligence officials do not believe there is a genuine threat to European aviation from those responsible.
European civil aviation is nevertheless a proven target. Just over a year ago, multiple drone intrusions into flight paths around major European airports caused widespread chaos, and most security experts believe Russian agents were responsible. In October 2023, more than 1,500 baseless bomb threats targeted Lithuanian schools and kindergartens, a campaign that intelligence circles concluded was likely encouraged by Russian intelligence services. One regional security official said Western Europe is now coping with the kind of nuisance attacks Russia has perpetrated there for nearly two decades.
Source: Financial Times Companies · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing