EU buyers turned back to Russia’s Yamal LNG project in Q1, lifting shipments by 17% to 5 million tonnes versus the same period last year, Kpler data shows. The surge translated into roughly €2.88bn of spend on the Siberian cargoes, according to Urgewald. Nearly all of the bloc’s Russian LNG—97% of 71 cargoes—came from Yamal, with 25 arrivals in March alone.

The lift coincides with a sharp contraction in Qatari LNG supplies after attacks on Middle‑East energy infrastructure and Iran’s seizure of the Strait of Hormuz. With European gas prices jumping to about €53 per MWh in March from €35 in January‑February, buyers found Russian cargoes comparatively cheap. Yet Brussels has kept its short‑term ban on Russian LNG, delaying the full import prohibition until January 2027.

EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen defended the upcoming ban, warning against repeating pre‑2022 reliance on Russian pipelines. Still, storage levels remain below seasonal norms, pressuring the bloc to secure alternative supply. With US LNG now covering two‑thirds of European imports, Yamal faces a shrinking market; without a buyer base, its profitability could falter in the near term.