Europe faces a prolonged energy crisis that will outlast the Middle East conflict, EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned as ministers discussed measures to shield households from high prices. The EU's fossil fuel import bill has already increased by €14bn in just 30 days of conflict, with oil and gas prices rising 60% and 70% respectively since the war began.

While the EU has been less affected than during the 2022 Russian invasion due to diversified supplies, experts warn that a long-running conflict will intensify global competition for resources. Jørgensen emphasized that even if peace were achieved tomorrow, the damage to Middle East energy infrastructure would continue to impact prices. The European Commission is preparing a "toolbox" of measures including easing state aid rules to support businesses and households.

The Brussels-based economic think-tank Bruegel cautioned against untargeted energy subsidies and weakening the EU's emissions trading system. Instead, they recommend coordinating LNG purchases with Japan and South Korea, reducing demand, and accelerating renewable energy deployment. Countries that have replaced gas generation with renewables, like Spain, are less exposed to fossil fuel price shocks, highlighting the importance of scaling up non-fossil generation to decouple Europe's electricity prices from future volatility.