First paragraph (55-75 words) mentioning key entity and core news: The Financial Times' Martin Wolf analyzes the market response to Iran's 'Operation Epic Fury', noting muted oil price reactions despite historical shocks. Brent crude rose 9% to $80.9 per barrel post-war, while Dutch TTF gas spiked 40% on Qatari export fears. Gold prices surged, but Wolf argues these moves reflect transient concerns, not systemic risks.

Second paragraph (55-75 words) explaining context, with a critical figure: Wolf contextualizes the crisis through historical oil shocks, highlighting the US's reduced oil intensity (down 70% since the 1970s) and strategic reserves. US stocks grew to 425mn barrels, while China's reserves expanded by 700mn barrels, now nearing 2bn. These buffers may cushion prolonged disruptions.

Third paragraph (55-75 words) with concrete closing analysis: Wolf warns of catastrophic scenarios if Gulf supply chains fracture, citing the Strait of Hormuz's role in 20% of global oil flows. He posits a likely 'Venezuelan option' deal—US securing oil access in exchange for tacit support for Iran's regime. Such an outcome, he argues, could stabilize the region, deter nuclear proliferation, and bolster US influence over China and the EU.

Fourth paragraph (55-75 words) with concrete closing analysis: Wolf concludes that while Trump's motives remain opaque, the war's trajectory may align with his cynical pragmatism. A negotiated settlement could enhance US geopolitical leverage, stabilize energy markets, and prevent Iran's nuclear materials from falling into destabilizing hands—outweighing risks of prolonged conflict.