Savills' latest research shows England will complete just over 150,000 new homes each year through March 2028, down from roughly 189,000 in the year to March 2026. The five‑year average to 2030 falls to 167,500, far short of the government's 300,000‑a‑year goal and the 1.5 mn homes pledge made by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The gap threatens affordability and may force councils to tighten planning.

Industry bodies including the Home Builders Federation and the National Housing Federation warn that a shortage of construction labour and a 39% plunge in planning consents have crippled starts, which are 31% lower than three years earlier. Elevated build costs and rising mortgage rates have forced firms such as Berkeley and Barratt Redrow to cut profit forecasts and shelve projects today.

Savills projects a modest rebound in 2028‑29 as sales outlook improves and funding from the affordable‑housing programme materialises. A revived Help‑to‑Buy scheme could add another 85,000 completions toward the 1.5 mn deadline, yet ministers have resisted earmarking such stimulus. Without a policy shift, annual delivery will remain well beneath the target. Investors are watching the policy debate closely.