A new study by BCG and Vertical Research Partners finds that established defence contractors will still capture more than 80 % of the weapons market in 2033, even as cheaper drones grow faster. Diana Dimitrova, head of BCG’s UK aerospace and defence practice, said both tech start‑ups and traditional primes will expand, but the bulk of spending stays with major platforms.

Last year complex systems accounted for $65bn of spending across the US, EU and UK, versus $5bn for affordable‑mass systems and just $55mn for single‑use items. The report forecasts the large‑system market rising to $79bn annually by 2033, while the smaller‑system segment reaches only $17.5bn.

In Europe, a rearmament drive could more than double the defence equipment market from €150bn in 2024 to €380bn by 2035, with defence‑tech firms expected to secure €50bn‑€80bn of that total, assuming a 3.5 % GDP spend target.

The findings precede the Farnborough Airshow, where start‑ups like Helsing and Quantum Systems will vie with primes. Analysts note that complex weapons generate about half their lifetime profit from maintenance and upgrades, giving incumbents a durable edge, though primes must decide whether to invest in exotic programmes or acquire high‑growth start‑ups.