Aliko Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest industrialist, is targeting Kenya for a 650,000‑barrel‑a‑day refinery. After a disputed push to locate the plant in Tanzania, he now favors Mombasa’s deeper port. The project would cost $15‑$17 bn and could tap crude shipped by sea, sidestepping a 1,500‑km pipeline from Uganda for regional fuel security and export prospects to Africa.

Kenya’s president, William Ruto, faces pressure to grant land and finance, while also shielding the refinery from cheap imports that could undercut domestic prices. Dangote stresses that without such protection, the plant cannot survive. He has already secured a deal to ship oil by ship, reducing reliance on the costly pipeline for regional energy supply.

The move follows Dangote’s $20 bn Lagos refinery, which now processes 650,000 barrels daily and supplies jet fuel to European airlines during the Strait of Hormuz closure. The Kenyan project would double Nigeria’s refinery output and position Dangote as a major global player, potentially matching Reliance Industries’ 1.4 mn b/d capacity in the global petrochemical market and fuel.

Kenyan officials must decide whether to grant the necessary land and financing, while Tanzania’s president, Samia Suluhu, has already lodged a formal complaint about the earlier plan. Investors watch closely, as the outcome will reshape East African refining capacity and influence regional oil pricing dynamics.