Commodities traders at the FT's Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne expressed significantly more alarm about the situation in and around Iran than equity investors. The Strait of Hormuz remains a zone of profound uncertainty—ships are being attacked and seized, yet no one possesses any meaningful market edge. Energy experts warn the crisis may not resolve quickly, leaving markets stuck in limbo.

UK inflation accelerated to 3.3 per cent in March, driven by rising energy prices—a development that caught the Bank of England off guard. Before the Iran conflict escalated, the central bank had expected inflation to fall to around the 2 per cent target in April, with markets pricing in two rate cuts this year. Now, expectations have shifted to none, or possibly a single increase at best.

The UK's economic fragility stems from its heavy reliance on energy imports and limited storage capacity, which historically converts global supply disruptions into steeper domestic price increases. While soft labour market conditions may mitigate secondary inflationary pressures, workers have regained bargaining power after years of above-target inflation, potentially complicating the Bank's policy approach.