Canada has pivoted from defiance to a 'Fortress North America' sales pitch to win back US President Donald Trump's favor ahead of the July 1 USMCA renegotiation deadline. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford are promoting regional economic integration despite being prominent critics of Trump's trade policies.

The White House froze Ottawa out of trade talks since October when Ford launched an anti-tariff advertising campaign that upset Trump. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has called the USMCA a 'bad deal' requiring rework, while Canada faces about 30 separate trade disputes with the US. The agreement covers roughly C$1.3tn in annual Canada-US trade in goods and services.

Former Canadian trade negotiator Steve Verheul warned that Canada 'could be stuck for a considerable period of time' in the scheduled review. Mark Carney recently told Wall Street executives that 'Canada strong will help make America great again,' signaling willingness to accept tougher trade conditions.

Business leaders see a potential path forward. William Pellerin, an international trade lawyer, suggests the US might drop most Section 232 tariffs on Canada's automotive sector, steel and aluminum exports. However, he cautions that reaching any agreement 'will not be smooth' given the frosty political relationship between the two nations.