Burford Capital's shares plunged nearly 50% after a US federal appeals court overturned a $16 billion judgment in the YPF nationalisation case. The London-listed litigation funder had been carrying the case value at $1.7 billion and saw almost $1 billion wiped from its market value. The reversal came after Argentina successfully argued that breach of contract claims were not actionable by shareholders.

Burford had invested heavily in the case, acquiring claims from investors Eton Park Capital Management and Petersen, an Argentine family. The company had seemed poised for a windfall after a lower court ruling in 2024, but the appeals court decision exposed the binary nature of litigation funding. Burford maintains its business remains stable, citing a portfolio of hundreds of cases and projecting $5 billion in future cash winnings.

This setback raises questions about whether volatile litigation funding suits risk-averse public market investors. Burford carries over $2 billion in debt and faces covenant restrictions on additional borrowing. The company's accounting reflects probability-adjusted views of future wins, with "capital provision income" falling from $388 million to $331 million between 2024 and 2025. While Burford may appeal to the US Supreme Court or pursue international arbitration, the case highlights the inherent risks of a business model dependent on unpredictable legal outcomes.