Not long ago, BHP spooked investors with repeated bids for Anglo American, suggesting doubts about its own growth. Now those fears look quaint as the world’s largest miner benefits from high copper prices.

Copper accounted for just over half of adjusted EBITDA of nearly $33bn for the year to June, beating expectations and rivaling iron ore, its traditional cash machine. Capital expenditure is set to deliver a 40% increase in attributable copper production between 2027 and 2035, driven by projects such as Jansen and Escondida, with free cash flows rising 150%.

The market has re‑rated BHP, doubling its enterprise‑value‑to‑EBITDA multiple from below four times to about eight times, close to dedicated copper miner Antofagasta. Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada forecast only 2% annual copper growth to 2035, half the company’s target, but investors are pricing in the ambitious expansion across Chile and South Australia.

Risks remain: cost overruns like those in potash, potential supply gluts, and neglect of iron‑ore and coal assets that still generate 60% margins. Yet with the world’s largest copper output needed for grids and data centres, BHP’s pipeline looks increasingly convincing.