Alstom, Europe's largest train manufacturer, skipped a €1.8bn tender for up to 40 high-speed trains from Spain's Renfe, citing an unrealistic three-year deadline and ambitious speed targets. The decision highlights the sector's structural challenges: fragmented European standards, multi-year delivery timelines, and lumpy payment schedules that strain balance sheets. New CEO Martin Sion, appointed in April, is prioritizing fewer projects to fix execution issues and improve cash flow, but Alstom's shares have halved from €30 highs.

The company issued its third profit warning in five years and dropped a cash-generation target. Despite a €103bn order book, new orders fell nearly 40% year-on-year in Q1. Analysts point to self-inflicted wounds from the 2021 €5.5bn Bombardier acquisition, which created overlaps and triggered over €1bn in provisions.

Alstom's market value has slumped to under €8bn from €17.6bn. While demand remains strong — with recent wins in Australia, Portugal, Poland, and the US — the industry's bespoke nature, regulatory hurdles, and penalty-laden contracts make profitability elusive for listed manufacturers.