Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil futures surged to $99.50 a barrel as the Iran war disrupted Middle East supplies, with the IEA warning of the largest oil supply shock in history. The conflict has forced producers to slash output and close ports, while Russia rakes in $150 million daily from surging prices. In Brazil, the government cut fuel taxes to shield consumers from global price spikes, introducing a crude export levy to offset lost revenue. Meanwhile, CF Industries shares hit record highs as fertilizer markets tighten, with nitrogen-based crop nutrients facing supply constraints from the Middle East conflict. Slovakia's largest fertilizer plant curbed ammonia output after natural gas prices soared, adding to European production pressures.
Fixed Income & Banking
U.S. stock futures slumped before Thursday's open as Middle East tensions pushed oil toward $100, while government bonds yielded higher on inflation concerns. The European Central Bank is considering relaxing carbon rules to combat energy-driven inflation, while Turkey paused rate cuts due to war-induced price pressures. Morgan Stanley shares fell after limiting withdrawals from a private credit fund, joining Blue Owl's defense of a $1.4 billion loan sale amid industry turmoil. Private credit funds are bracing for battles with major banks over back leverage arrangements as investors flee the sector.
Corporate & M&A
Wells Fargo, Barclays, and JPMorgan split $110.8 million in fees for the Schroders sale, while Airbnb prepared a high-grade bond debut ahead of convertible note maturities. Amazon seized a $54 billion bond window amid escalating conflict, pitching itself as a safe haven investment. Oracle allocated $500 million for restructuring costs as AI models enable software job cuts. In the auto sector, Stellantis explored deals with Chinese rivals to shore up struggling European operations, while Rivian delayed sub-$50,000 SUVs until 2027. Lucid unveiled three new models including Cosmos and Earth SUVs as part of a midsize platform expansion.
Trade & Logistics
The Port of Los Angeles saw 3% traffic growth as importers rushed goods ahead of Lunar New Year factory closures. Orient Overseas warned of Middle East risks after earnings eroded from geopolitical woes, while Persian Gulf flights faced fresh disruptions from missile attacks. India pulled $2.1 billion in bond sales as war-driven credit premiums widened, and Qatar Aluminum altered shutdown plans to maintain 60% capacity. Norsk Hydro's Qatar plant will operate at 60% capacity after gas flow resumed, averting a full halt.
Geopolitics & Policy
The CFTC issued first guidance on prediction market manipulation, asking exchanges to consult regulators before opening vulnerable markets. UK officials said Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while Colombia's presidential hopeful named a former statistics chief as running mate. The Trump administration planned Jones Act suspensions to ease oil prices, and Congress learned of $11.3 billion in first-week Iran war costs. Brazil's electoral overhaul failed, forcing President Sheinbaum to offer backup reform plans within 24 hours.
Technology & AI
Oracle's AI-driven restructuring triggered $500 million in costs for software job cuts, while Voya limited data center credit investing over AI demand plateau concerns. McKinsey rushed to fix AI systems after a hacker exposed flaws, though the firm claimed no client data was compromised. Tesla obtained a UK electricity supply license, expanding beyond vehicles into energy services. Charlesbank agreed to buy a stake in Canada's Overbay Capital for C$200 million, valuing the secondaries firm at that price.
Real Estate & Infrastructure
Hilton Head Island sought $35 million in bonds for a new fire headquarters, while Equinor saw little room to boost gas output to offset Iran war disruptions. Deutsche Bank flagged commercial real estate as a key risk requiring higher credit loss provisions. CSN debt surged as Brazil's steelmaker prepared asset sales to strengthen its balance sheet. Zalando shares jumped after announcing a $347 million share buyback and securing a Levi's partnership.
Emerging Markets
Angola kept rates at 17.5% as oil prices surged from the Iran conflict, pausing its cutting cycle. India asked China for urea as Middle East gas shortages threatened fertilizer production in the agricultural powerhouse. Senegal made $471 million in bond payments ahead of a Friday deadline, avoiding default while seeking IMF aid. Colombia's top fertilizer plant cut ammonia output after natural gas prices soared, signaling broader European industry strain.
Consumer & Retail
Dick's Sporting Goods reported higher sales and progress in turning around Foot Locker, while Dollar General shares sank as growth outlook slowed due to winter storm impacts and consumer uncertainty. Lululemon's founder escalated board critiques amid the ongoing CEO search, warning candidates that challenges stem from board dysfunction rather than leadership vacancy.