Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil
The S&P 500 futures tumbled 1.4% as the war in Iran entered its fourth day, heightening fears of a lengthy disruption to energy markets and a surge in inflation. Canadian equities stumbled by the most since April's tariff-fueled rout, as an escalating war in the Middle East unnerved investors who exited even traditional safe havens like gold. European shares skidded to one-month lows as Middle East war dragged on, with investors fleeing to safety amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Energy Crisis
Oil surged for a second day as the US and Israel stepped up their war against Iran, with the sprawling conflict's impact on energy assets in the Persian Gulf deepening. US oil futures surged as much as 6.5%, while diesel prices across the globe surged to multi-year highs as the war on Iran expanded across the Middle East. Iraq started shutting oil production at its biggest fields and is set to make even deeper reductions in the coming days, the clearest sign yet of stress on Middle East producer giants. Saudi Aramco is exploring the option of delivering more cargoes to Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea that's situated outside the Persian Gulf, where dozens of ships are hunkered down.
Geopolitical Impact
President Trump expressed concern that the strikes against Iran could lead to a new leadership that's equally troubling to Washington as the regime the US and Israel are fighting to topple. Israel struck Iran-backed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, saying the military "is conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in order to remove threats." China's foreign minister told his Israeli counterpart that attacks on Iran must end, highlighting growing international concern over the widening conflict.
Private Markets Under Pressure
Blackstone's flagship private credit fund saw record outflows of $1.7 billion in its latest quarter, as investor redemptions topped inflows. Apollo's CEO warned of a "shakeout" in private markets, saying "This will be a shakeout. I don't think it is going to be short term." Moody's noted that the investor base "has been spooked" by private credit concerns, while Deutsche Bank analysts warned that business development companies sitting on a massive pile of leveraged loans could sell to meet redemption requests and push spreads wider.
Corporate Developments
Verizon recently weighed pulling back on its NFL sponsorship deal but decided against the changes while scrutinizing other major sports- and music-marketing agreements. RV maker Thor warned of a cloudy consumer outlook, maintaining its fiscal-year outlook but cautioning that new tariff measures, inflation and the recent conflict in the Middle East could weigh on results. Best Buy forecast tepid growth as consumer demand slows, projecting weak growth for the year ahead as it expects consumers to continue hunting for value.
Safe Haven Assets
The dollar reclaimed its ultimate haven role as war and inflation angst grew, with investors rushing to the greenback amid escalating Middle East tensions. Gold slumped more than 5% after a four-day rally as traders weighed the escalating war in the Middle East against the prospect of a stronger dollar and elevated inflation. Oil's surge has pushed prices higher but not yet to $100 a barrel, with analysts noting that the reaction is muted compared with past oil shocks.
Financial Markets
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange rejected demands for compensation from at least two natural gas investors who lost money when a technical glitch disrupted trading during the key period when settlement prices are determined. The UK is slashing its bond sale to a three-year low, in a boost for a gilt market being battered by investor concerns over war in the Middle East. The UAE said two key markets will reopen for trading on March 4 after two days of closure due to the US-Israeli war on Iran and conflict across the Middle East.
Technology & Innovation
The International Energy Agency said it's ready to help stabilize the global oil market in the wake of the Iran conflict, noting that member countries hold over a billion barrels in emergency stockpiles. Norsk Hydro said its Qatari smelter is shutting down after its joint-venture partner stopped supplying gas amid attacks from Iran, highlighting the energy-intensive industry's vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions. Amazon data centers in the Middle East were struck during the conflict, underscoring the industry's vulnerability to physical disasters.