Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 1, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Market Movers & Shakers

Stock markets navigated a complex week, with the S&P 500 notching its strongest quarter since 2020 as AI-driven earnings growth buoyed sentiment. European equities also closed at a record high, capping their best quarter since late 2020, boosted by a revival in AI-related trades. However, US futures edged higher as traders assessed commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, while the Japanese yen hit a 40-year low against the dollar, sparking intervention expectations. US stocks pared earlier losses following fresh economic data that painted a picture of resilience. Meanwhile, oil prices rose as the US and Iran discussed a deal to suspend attacks in a key shipping lane, raising hopes for de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tech & AI Frenzy

The artificial intelligence boom continued to dominate headlines, with Guggenheim upgrading a trio of companies and stating that fears of AI posing a mortal threat to the software sector are overblown, leading to software shares rising. Separately, Together AI, a firm specializing in open-source AI models, is now worth over $8 billion, as companies race for cheaper AI options. However, economists are sounding alarm AI, warning of potential global fallout if the current boom turns to bust. Anthropic received a reprieve from the Trump administration, allowing it to restore access to its most powerful AI models, de-escalating a regulatory dispute.

Corporate Dealmaking & IPOs

The IPO market saw notable activity, with AOL owner Bending Spoons jumping 14% above its initial public offering price after raising $1.68 billion. Bending Spoons SpA acquired struggling software businesses and its listing came after US IPOs raised a record haul in the first six months of the year. Electric bike rental firm Lime also gained 8% post-IPO, raising $174 million. In M&A, Martin Marietta struck a major $13.5 billion deal for limestone supplier Lhoist North America, its largest acquisition to date. French shipping company CMA CGM is set to buy FedEx Supply Chain for $1.4 billion, integrating ocean transport and carrier services. Comcast's planned NBCUniversal spinoff is positioned as the next major deal target in Hollywood, signaling further media industry realignments.

Private Markets & Credit Concerns

The private credit market is facing scrutiny, with Pimco warning of a "confidence gap" that could reveal weak funds. AI's trillion-dollar debt binge is fueling a century-old private bond market, allowing tech borrowers to sell debt directly to insurers. In a concerning development, the head of BlackRock's private credit fund, David Tseng, is exiting following months of losses and a regulatory probe. Separately, bad loan investor APS is eyeing €3.3 billion in portfolio deals, anticipating increased stress on bank balance sheets due to higher interest rates and real estate woes APS eyes portfolio deals.

Regulatory & Economic Landscape

The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Yann Stournaras indicated a smaller likelihood of further due to falling energy prices and slowing inflation. However, Ulo Kaasik, another ECB Governing Council member, suggested one more rate hike. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that inflation poses less risk than previously, while also stressing the central bank's commitment to price stability. In Peru, inflation unexpectedly accelerated in June, exceeding the central bank's target due to rising food costs. Colombia, meanwhile, raised its interest rate to 12% after a court ruling ended restrictions on monetary tightening.

Commodities & Energy Sector

Oil prices remained volatile, with UAE oil flows hitting pre-war levels by using dark ships and a Hormuz bypass pipeline. US crude oil inventories continued their decline, falling by 3.8 million barrels. Coffee and sugar futures extended their rally, driven by unfavorable weather conditions in key growing regions that heightened supply concerns. ABF's sugar profits were hit Strait Hormuz closure, impacting sales for its Primark brand. European steelmakers are urging policymakers to avoid weakening the carbon market, advocating for stronger carbon border adjustments.

Trump & Political Economy

President Trump's business dealings and political activities continued to draw attention. He claimed chipmaker Micron would donate $250 million to a new child investment account. Trump's investment accounts reportedly made over 20,000 trades last year, with his crypto dealings generating an estimated $1.4 billion, making him the largest US crypto earner. The Trump administration's stance on regulation, particularly concerning AI, remains a concern for Silicon Valley, though it has lifted restrictions on Anthropic's models. Trade policy also featured, with a poll indicating bipartisan backing for the USMCA.

Retail & Consumer Goods

Retailers are navigating shifting consumer behaviors and market dynamics. Saks' retail strategy is reportedly relying more on luxury brands than Wall Street. General Mills swung to a loss in its fourth quarter as it works to win back challenging consumers through cost-cutting and new product introductions. Kroger has agreed to acquire Giant Eagle for $1.65 billion, combining cash and assumed liabilities. Nestle's coffee division is eyeing a matcha push amid volatility in coffee-bean prices and a desire to attract younger customers.

Infrastructure & Transportation

Brightline, the debt-laden private Florida railroad, is hurtling toward a debt deadline with no clear plan in place for July 1. Slovakia is set to revive a primary aluminum plant, once a major European producer. Alcoa has agreed to buy South32's aluminum assets in a deal valued up to $5.6 billion, a move that comes as disruptions in the Middle East push up metal prices. National Grid will invest $1.75 billion in Joulent for a 35% stake in U.S. energy infrastructure.

Legal & Regulatory Battles

Google has been ordered to pay nearly $2 billion to Klarna in an antitrust case, with a Swedish court ruling the search giant favored its own price-comparison service. In the UK, commodities broker ED&F Man Capital Markets has been tax dividend fraud suit. The UK's Competition and Markets Authority ordered Getty to scrap its $3.7 billion Shutterstock merger. Binance has cut off European users following regulatory concerns over financial crime.

Global Economic Developments

Egypt is edging closer to a $1.6 billion IMF payout after reaching a preliminary deal on its latest program review Egypt nears IMF payout. In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is staking her legacy on an unprecedented plan to reshape the nation's industrial base. Indonesian students are protesting as the country's currency weakens. In Oman, the IPO of Oman India Fertiliser Co. has drawn over $12 billion in orders, marking the largest listing in the Middle East since the start of the regional conflict Oman IPO draws $12 billion.