Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 23, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Equity Markets

Global equity markets posted mixed results as the S&P 500 extended gains for an eighth consecutive week, driven by optimism around US-Iran ceasefire negotiations despite ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz transit fees. Walmart shares slipped 2.1% after the retailer reported rising sales but warned that price-conscious shoppers are gravitating toward lower-margin items, raising concerns about consumer spending patterns. Meanwhile, Microsoft became the S&P 500's biggest drag as AI-related investments failed to impress investors, with shares sliding amid questions about return on capital expenditure. The tech giant's struggles contrasted sharply with Lenovo shares approaching all-time highs after the Chinese computer maker reported strong AI-related earnings growth that helped offset rising component costs.

Oil & Energy Markets

Crude oil traded near $100 per barrel as market participants priced in sustained geopolitical supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, with the consensus view emerging for oil to be capped near this level over the next year. US oil producers ramped up output to capture the price surge following a 40% jump in global supply crunch costs that has dented President Trump's approval ratings. In Asia, India raised diesel and gasoline prices for the third time in eight days as state-run refiners sought to cut losses on discounted sales amid soaring demand. European energy majors explored selling stakes in renewable assets, with Total Energies considering a 50% sale of some European green holdings to bring in partners for its renewable investments.

Central Banks & Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge approached 4% as war-driven energy costs sparked concerns about broadening price pressures, complicating the central bank's path toward rate cuts. Fed watchers noted that Kevin Warsh's promised "regime change" faces practical limits given the constraints of operating alone without broader consensus support. Across the Atlantic, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras signaled that preserving the central bank's credibility constitutes a strong argument for an interest-rate increase next month. The dollar stalled near multi-week highs as risk sentiment improved on optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks, though the WSJ Dollar Index edged just 0.02% higher to 95.80.

Geopolitics & Middle East

Iran and US officials signaled progress on ceasefire implementation even as disagreements persisted over Iran's uranium stockpile and Strait of Hormuz transit fees. Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed medics and damaged a main hospital in Tyre, undermining fragile truce efforts as funerals proceeded for paramedics killed the previous day. Prime Minister Netanyahu found himself marginalized in peace negotiations, a stark reversal from his role as Trump's co-pilot against Iran. US forces redirected 100 commercial vessels during the six-week blockade of Iranian ports, while the Pentagon warned Japan of severe Tomahawk missile delivery delays that could extend two years due to depleted Middle East campaign stocks.

Mergers & Acquisitions

The AI revolution turbocharged global M&A activity to record highs, with unloved companies suddenly attracting attention and private equity firms discovering new opportunities in the sector. Delivery Hero confirmed an Uber takeover approach valuing the German food delivery group at €10 billion, while also attracting interest from rival Door Dash. CVC Capital Partners launched a €10.9 billion offer for Italian drugmaker Recordati, tightening the buyout group's control of the 100-year-old rare disease specialist. In a sign of shifting retail dynamics, China Inc went shopping for Western consumer brands including Everlane, seeking growth abroad amid domestic deflationary pressures.

Technology & AI

Venture capitalist John Doerr declared AI the biggest tech tsunami ever, arguing the revolution remains underhyped despite massive market enthusiasm. White House approved $9 billion for spy agencies to catch up on AI deployment, as the CIA and NSA cannot fully utilize latest models on classified systems due to chip shortages. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman explained why building the world's largest computer chip makes sense in AI applications where bigger means faster. The AI-driven deal frenzy turned Nvidia into a snoozefest compared to the excitement around SpaceX's planned IPO, which is expected to be the largest ever.

Asia-Pacific Developments

Bangladesh's central bank launched a $5 billion fund to spur economic growth, revive shuttered factories, and support small businesses through a 600 billion-taka package. Indonesia planned to beat global trading giants at their own game by developing domestic capabilities to handle raw materials currently managed by international trading houses. New Zealand announced a NZ$1.6 billion investment in drones, ship maintenance, and naval upgrades to bolster maritime security amid rising regional tensions. Toyota Finance set bond coupons at 1999 highs with a ¥100 billion issuance featuring a five-year coupon climbing to the company's highest level for yen-denominated bonds since its debut.

Fixed Income

Bond markets flashed vigilante warnings as investors grew concerned about fiscal sustainability amid rising deficits and inflation pressures. Yield curves in Southeast Asia may steepen further as elevated oil prices increase inflationary pressures and deepen fiscal strains across the region. Meanwhile, Julius Baer expected substantially higher first-half profits as the Swiss wealth manager signaled progress in its ongoing restructuring efforts.