Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 21, 2026, 2:31 AM ET

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures edged higher after plunging on optimism over a potential US-Iran deal, with prices hovering near $100 a barrel as market participants increasingly price crude at that level for the year ahead. Global stockpiles of crude and refined products are being drawn down at a record pace as the Middle East conflict curtails supply, compounding the pressure on OPEC+ to manage output. The backdrop to the oil rally is a string of geopolitical flashpoints: President Trump said the US is in "final stages" of talks with Iran, even as the two nations traded threats, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps dominates decision-making in Tehran and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis warned of the consequences of a Hormuz closure. Meanwhile, base metals wavered in narrow ranges as the Iran noise kept traders on edge, and gold held near $2,550 after hopes of a US-Iran truce eased bets on near-term rate cuts, offset somewhat by firmer US Treasury yields. The war in the Middle East is also accelerating a shift toward the Chinese renminbi in global oil trade, with analysts noting rising use of the yuan in energy transactions.

Asian Markets & Currencies

Asian equities climbed Thursday after Wall Street gains reflected a constructive outlook on US-Iran negotiations, while Samsung reached a last-minute deal with its union to avert a strike over AI-related pay demands, sending South Korean stocks higher. Nvidia's mixed earnings reaction whipsawed Asian tech, but the broader chip rally held, with SK Hynix and Samsung driving the Kospi up despite a persistently weak won. China's Shanghai property market showed signs of bottoming, though the national market still faces an enormous overhang of 90 million empty or unfinished apartments. Foreign investors returned to Chinese stocks in April after an initial Iran-war selloff, while China's palladium imports hit a record as local futures prices lured inflows. On the currency front, India's rupee advanced the most in Asia after the central bank intervened, with the RBI weighing a rate hike and other tools to defend the currency as it approached 100 per dollar. Global funds brace for further rupee losses as record foreign outflows from local stocks keep pressure on, and the Iran war is piling pressure on emerging Asian currencies and bonds, pushing some toward levels once considered unlikely.

India Focus

India's economic activity held steady in May according to a flash HSBC PMI survey, but the currency turmoil is reshaping the investment landscape. The Reserve Bank of India weighs options including a rate hike to stabilize the rupee, while record foreign outflows continue to weigh on sentiment. Billionaire Sajjan Jindal's JSW Motors secured an $826 million funding line from India's largest lender, keeping its new energy vehicle venture on track. Citigroup sees India IPOs hitting fresh records in the second half of the year despite a rocky start, while Reliance Industries' $4 billion Jio IPO hits roadblocks amid Iran-war uncertainty. India's largest agricultural exchange has launched its first rainfall hedge as El Niño threatens the monsoon, and 360 ONE Asset Management seeks up to $500 million for its sixth private credit fund, underscoring sustained investor appetite for the asset class.

Rare Earths & Mining

Australia's Arafura Rare Earths committed to a $1.6 billion project that could supply roughly 4% of global neodymium and praseodymium, critical minerals for EVs, wind turbines and defense applications. The company gave final approval for the Nolans mine in the Northern Territory, which is set to produce about 5% of global rare earths. Meanwhile, China's Sinomine Resource Group seeks $760 million for African lithium and copper projects, and Agnico Eagle Mines approved a $1.7 billion gold mine in Canada's Arctic, hailed by the government as an economic anchor. Norway's stock market leads developed Europe this year on surging energy prices, but investors are also drawn to non-oil sectors, while a global rush for critical minerals shows no sign of abating.

SpaceX IPO & Tech Valuations

SpaceX filed for its long-awaited IPO, with documents revealing the company is unprofitable and CEO Elon Musk controls 85% of the vote. Founder Antonio Gracias controls a 7.3% stake, making him the second-largest holder after Musk and set to earn billions from the offering. The IPO filing laid out planetary ambitions including asteroid mining and a colony on Mars, prompting some to call the move a "genius bubble". SoftBank Group shares surged almost 20% in Tokyo after reports that OpenAI and SB Energy are preparing US IPOs, while Anthropic is on track for its first profitable quarter ahead of competitors. Nvidia's Huang ignited an Asia tech rally with his AI and robotics vision, though investors wanted more from the results, and former Baillie Gifford fund manager James Anderson declared the software era over, saying AI war spoils will flow to hardware suppliers.

Fixed Income & European Markets

US Treasury yields touched multi-year highs as Jamie Dimon warned rates may climb much higher even after the recent bond selloff, adding to investor unease. A series of large Treasury block sales drove a capitulation selloff in the $31 trillion government debt market as inflation fears resurfaced. Japanese government bonds rose in Tokyo trade tracking US Treasury gains, while US insurer Aflac sold ¥65.9 billion in yen bonds joining a wave of foreign issuers tapping Japan's credit market. The ECB's window to "look through" energy shocks has already shut, and UK energy price caps are set to jump 13% this summer as Middle East conflict drives up wholesale gas and power costs. Lufthansa is speaking with investors ahead of a euro bond sale as jet fuel costs rise, and a crucial Japanese 20-year bond sale tested market nerves amid super-long yield pressures.

Political Risk & Trump Administration

President Trump announced charges against Raul Castro in an escalation of the administration's pressure campaign against Cuba, with a Nimitz aircraft carrier entering the Caribbean on the same day. The Justice Department's indictment prompted debate among Cubans, while Sherritt International reversed plans to unwind Cuba ventures after consultations with officials. Meanwhile, the Trump administration created a $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund" that prompted the resignation of the Treasury's top lawyer, and key points of a settlement REF:76