Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 16, 2026, 5:31 PM ET

Geopolitics & Energy Markets

Oil prices inched higher in rangebound trade as Iran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz while President Trump and President Xi Jinping, meeting in Beijing, agreed the waterway should remain open. The commodity's path remains hostage to the third month of Middle East conflict, which has sent energy prices soaring and triggered a global inventory race as manufacturers rush to stockpile goods ahead of potential supply disruptions. The dollar's correlation to oil prices has reached its strongest-ever positive reading as the currency strengthens amid war-induced uncertainty. US 30-year Treasury yields closed the week at their highest since 2007 as global bonds tumbled on inflation fears, while the dollar is expected to drift higher as investors value its high-yielding status. Analysts point to uneven consequences across nations, with some profiting handsomely from elevated prices and others losing significant revenue.

China, Trade & Defense

President Trump left Beijing without concrete agreements, calling President Xi a "friend" but delivering no breakthroughs a pattern that mirrors the broader risk of personality-driven foreign policy. Trump used Taiwan arms sales as a bargaining chip in talks with Beijing, raising questions about the reliability of U.S. support for the island. Meanwhile, China will host Vladimir Putin days after Trump's visit, with the Kremlin noting it had watched the trip closely. Boeing shares slid as the China summit disappointed markets, though Trump and Boeing announced Beijing would purchase 200 planes, a deal that could mark a major win in one of the world's largest aviation markets. Chinese steel mill profitability climbed to its highest since August, but chipmakers' lofty valuations are prompting investor caution. Ray Dalio discussed China's trajectory while Rubio softened his China hawk stance to align with the president's approach.

AI & Tech Rally Under Pressure

The S&P 500 confronted accelerating inflation and higher interest rates even as it posted a long weekly winning streak, driven by strong corporate earnings. Investors are fervently chasing the AI stock frenzy while acknowledging that rising yields threaten to knock equities off course. Active managers found only 1 in 4 beating the market as the AI rally crushed stock pickers, and global fund managers playing catch-up may fuel the S&P's next leg up as allocators rush to reposition. Bill Ackman disclosed a new stake in Microsoft's AI ambitions, calling the tech giant underpriced. Foxconn reported robust first-quarter revenue as it ramped up AI hardware production, while Stripe's John Collison described agentic commerce reshaping the internet. OpenAI acquired a voice-cloning startup and partnered with Khan Academy to build a classroom chatbot, deepening the company's push into consumer AI. On the IPO front, Forbright filed for a public listing showing growing deposits, Erock filed for a US IPO as a data center power systems maker, and Lime's bike-sharing IPO would value the Uber-backed company at $2 billion and 28 times last year's operating profit.

Corporate Dealmaking & Strategy

NextEra Energy is in talks to combine with Dominion Energy in a mostly stock deal that would create a $400 billion U.S. utility giant, fueled by booming demand for electricity to power AI data centers. Mercedes-Benz's CEO signaled willingness to enter defense production as Germany recasts its manufacturing sector for the West's defense arsenal. VinFast plans to spin off two Vietnamese factories to shed roughly $6.9 billion in debt. Harvard's endowment head told the board he plans to retire, having overseen growth from $35.7 billion to nearly $57 billion. Fidelity International's inflation bet paid off as bonds sold off, with portfolio manager Mike Riddell having been skeptical of easing global price pressures. Berkshire Hathaway sold about $8 billion of Chevron shares as the oil giant's stock hit record highs, while a mystery bidder paid $9 million to dine with Warren Buffett at a charity lunch he last attended in 2022. Ford shares surged