Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 18, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Geopolitical Turmoil and Energy Markets
Escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to drive volatility across global energy markets, with benchmark oil prices soaring amid war bloomberg.com while creating significant divergence between U.S. crude and international benchmarks. Attacks on energy facilities, including strikes on an Iranian gas field and a Qatari LNG complex, sent prices higher, leading to extensive damage at Ras Laffan ft.com, the world’s largest LNG plant. In response to the supply disruption fears, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose wsj.com by 6.2 million barrels last week, confounding analyst expectations of a slight decline. Meanwhile, the conflict prompted Saudi Arabia to revive over half its normal exports bloomberg.com via the Hormuz bypass, showing early success in contingency planning, even as Carlyle Group warned that oil prices have not fully priced in the supply shock bloomberg.com.
The energy crisis is forcing international responses to secure supply and manage inflationary fallout. China, the world’s largest crude importer, is reportedly preparing to tap its commercial oil reserves bloomberg.com to offset the crisis, while the Philippines’ House of Representatives moved to authorize the president to suspend oil taxes bloomberg.com during emergencies. In the U.S., President Trump suspended the Jones Act nytimes.com to allow foreign-flagged ships to move fuel between domestic ports, a move some commentators argue is short-sighted dependency on foreign vessels nytimes.com. The war’s inflationary impact is being felt globally; Brazil’s Treasury extended record market interventions bloomberg.com to contain volatility, and fertilizer giant Yara curbed production in India bloomberg.com due to curtailed gas feedstock supplies.
Central banks are grappling with this energy-driven inflation, leading to a sharp repricing of rate cut expectations. Bond traders have slashed odds for any Fed rate cut bloomberg.com this year following the oil surge and a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI), prompting JPMorgan Investment Management’s Bob Michele to suggest the Fed sent a “don’t worry about it” signal despite the risks bloomberg.com. In Canada, the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.25% bloomberg.com, electing to “look through” immediate oil-related inflation to focus on underlying growth downside risks. Furthermore, in the UK, economists have revised inflation forecasts upward ft.com following the energy cost spike, suggesting the Bank of England will keep rates on hold this week.
Corporate & Dealmaking Activity
The ongoing market volatility is not deterring all M&A activity, though dealmakers are advised against waiting for perfect conditions. Goldman Sachs urged bankers bloomberg.com not to delay strategic mergers while markets are gripped by uncertainty. Lazard’s global head of M&A suggested that while the war in Iran may slow timelines, it is unlikely to dent overall M&A activity bloomberg.com. In the consumer goods sector, both Unilever and Kraft Heinz held preliminary merger talks ft.com regarding a potential combination valued in the tens of billions, reflecting their mutual struggle against subdued consumer demand. Elsewhere, the trend of corporate restructuring continues, with conglomerate spinoffs outperforming bloomberg.com the S&P 500, prompting even large entities to consider breakups.
In technology and manufacturing, memory chip maker Micron reported that its sales had nearly tripled year-over-year wsj.com, crediting strong demand and industry-wide tight supply for memory components. In contrast, value retailer Five Below posted a higher fourth-quarter profit wsj.com, realizing $238.2 million compared to $187.5 million the prior year, while Williams-Sonoma offered an upbeat sales forecast wsj.com projecting 2% to 6% comparable sales growth despite a dynamic environment. Meanwhile, the pressure on private credit markets persists, with Pimco stating it is actively staying away from private loans bloomberg.com being sold because they are deemed “pretty bad,” though Bof A analysts maintain this stress is not a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis bloomberg.com.
Financial Regulation and Housing Markets
Uncertainty surrounding the future of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) sent shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac plunging bloomberg.com, hitting their lowest point in over a year amid investor skepticism regarding potential sales under the Trump administration. In Asian markets, South Korean stocks posted gains following a regulatory move bloomberg.com designed to ban double listings, a practice blamed for diluting shareholder value. Hong Kong’s fundraising hub is also bracing for a slowdown as regulatory scrutiny intensifies bloomberg.com on share sales. In the U.S. real estate sector, Office Properties Income Trust, which is bankrupt, is nearing a deal to hand ownership to creditors bloomberg.com to settle its restructuring case. Furthermore, Janus Living Inc., a seniors-focused REIT, is aiming to raise as much as $740 million in an IPO, targeting a potential $5 billion valuation bloomberg.com.
Global Economic & Political Notes
Argentina’s unemployment rate climbed to 7.5% bloomberg.com by the end of last year, representing the highest fourth-quarter reading since the pandemic, as job losses mounted prior to the implementation of Javier Milei’s reforms. In Europe, the UK is looking to its North Sea energy sector, with the industry lobby urging tax reform to reduce LNG imports bloomberg.com, suggesting certainty over the tax regime could unlock major developments like the Cambo oil and gas project ft.com. Ethiopia has already spent $1.35 billion this year attempting to defend its currency, the birr bloomberg.com, a sum equivalent to a quarter of its known reserves, and is now asking citizens to conserve fuel bloomberg.com. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. has reportedly seen no change in Iran’s missile capabilities before recent actions, contradicting some of the justifications given for earlier strikes nytimes.com.