Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Energy Markets
Oil prices surged past $100 bloomberg.com as the Iran war entered its second week, with crude futures climbing 8.5% in New York trading. The International Energy Agency confirmed nytimes.com this represents the largest oil supply disruption in history, forcing producers to slash output and close ports. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz allowed continued exports wsj.com while deterring other vessels, creating a paradox where Tehran is shipping more crude today than before the conflict began. Traders questioned bloomberg.com whether emergency stockpile releases could be swift enough to bridge the supply gap, with Morgan Stanley noting oil would need to remain above $100 to alter their bullish US stock outlook.
Fixed Income
Government bond yields rose sharply wsj.com before stabilizing Thursday as Middle East tensions worsened inflation and growth expectations. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed toward 4.9%, part of a global move higher in borrowing costs as traders priced in larger deficits bloomberg.com worldwide. European bonds rebounded bloomberg.com Tuesday as energy prices dropped, but the relief proved temporary amid ongoing supply concerns. South Africa's planned fiscal rule faces implementation challenges bloomberg.com despite IMF support, while Senegal avoided default bloomberg.com by making $471 million in bond payments ahead of Friday's deadline.
Emerging Markets
Emerging-market currencies faced renewed pressure nytimes.com as the Iran war escalated, with options markets pricing in significant near-term pain. The conflict has broken the traditional relationship bloomberg.com between crude oil and emerging-market currencies, pushing correlations to the most negative levels in at least a decade. India withdrew $2.1 billion bloomberg.com in bond sales as investors demanded wider credit premiums, while Chinese refiners canceled export cargoes bloomberg.com as Beijing tightened fuel export curbs. Angola's central bank paused rate cuts bloomberg.com at 17.5%, marking the first hold since August as oil prices surged.
Technology & AI Infrastructure
Technology companies have borrowed billions to fuel rapid data center expansion for AI, but demand risks plateauing bloomberg.com before debts are repaid, according to Voya Financial. Oracle allocated $500 million wsj.com for restructuring costs as powerful AI models allow software job cuts. Meanwhile, McKinsey rushed to fix ft.com its AI system after a hacker exposed flaws, though the consultancy said no confidential client information was compromised. The European Commission is considering relaxing bloomberg.com carbon-permit rules and allowing more state aid to address spiking power prices.
Corporate Finance & M&A
Airbnb prepares high-grade bond debut bloomberg.com as convertible note maturities approach, while Blackstone-owned Air Trunk secured $1.2 billion bloomberg.com for Japanese data center expansion. Blue Owl Capital defended its $1.4 billion loan sale bloomberg.com, arguing no hidden incentives were involved. Deutsche Bank raised its bonus pool 6.6% bloomberg.com amid mixed performance, less than Wall Street peers. Brazilian steelmaker CSN prepares asset sales bloomberg.com to strengthen its balance sheet under pressure from high financing costs.
Banking & Regulation
US lenders face new capital proposals bloomberg.com from regulators in the coming week, according to Federal Reserve bank cop Christopher Waller. The European Central Bank's Madis Muller said rate-hike chances have risen bloomberg.com but urged against hasty reactions to the Iran war. Crédit Mutuel's Daniel Baal identified inflation as the main bank risk bloomberg.com from the conflict. Meanwhile, Lloyds investigated an IT glitch ft.com that briefly exposed customer information to other users.
Geopolitical Developments
Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com, according to UK officials, as the waterway becomes central to US-Israeli operations against Tehran. At least a dozen clusters of ships have appeared near the strait, indicating elevated electronic interference bloomberg.com. Ukraine struck a key Russian oil pipeline hub bloomberg.com in the Krasnodar region, while Iraq's oil terminals suspended operations bloomberg.com after attacks on two tankers in Iraqi waters. Qatar Aluminum reduced output to 60% capacity bloomberg.com rather than fully shutting down operations.
Market Sentiment & Trading
Equity traders brace for continued volatility bloomberg.com as war rages on, with Wall Street's $80 billion buffer ETFs facing their first major test. The "AI trade" that's separating Wall Street's winners and losers saw Point72 score hundreds of millions wsj.com in gains while a smaller firm closes after software stock losses. Charles Schwab's Rick Wurster noted a new generation bloomberg.com of investors buying US equities at every pullback. Leon Cooperman warned markets are overpriced bloomberg.com given geopolitical risks.
Trade & Supply Chains
The Trump administration plans Jones Act waivers bloomberg.com to allow foreign ships to transport oil between US ports as part of efforts to control surging prices. India asked China for urea supplies bloomberg.com as the Middle East gas crunch threatens fertilizer production. The conflict could boost LNG trade through Panama Canal bloomberg.com as Asian buyers seek alternative energy sources. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit fell in January nytimes.com before Supreme Court decisions on tariffs.
Regional Economic Impact
Germany's economy expects only minor setback bloomberg.com if the Iran conflict doesn't escalate further, according to the German Institute for Economic Research. France maintains growth forecasts bloomberg.com despite energy price surges. Turkey's central bank paused rate cuts bloomberg.com at 45% as war-driven energy prices and currency pressures mount. The conflict is testing US voters' patience ft.com as petrol prices soar, while New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani faces fiscal warnings bloomberg.com amid ambitious campaign promises.
Market Infrastructure
Chicago's exchange CEOs urged review of prediction market listings bloomberg.com, citing concerns about platforms growing through contracts without explicit regulatory approval. The Group of Seven asked the IEA to prepare oil stockpile scenarios bloomberg.com as Middle East crisis roils markets. India's National Stock Exchange selected bankers for $2.5 billion IPO bloomberg.com, while Pay Pay bets on cornerstone investors bloomberg.com to insulate its US IPO from market turbulence.