Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Energy & Commodities
Oil futures slid 1.3% wsj.com in early Asian trade as OPEC+ signaled potential output increases, while gold held near $2,340 nytimes.com despite a weakening dollar. A surge in aluminum prices bloomberg.com catapulted China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo to a $48 billion fortune, making him one of Asia's wealthiest industrialists. The UAE dealt with a refinery fire bloomberg.com after a drone strike in the same area as its largest oil refinery, while Saudi Aramco raced to restore 70% of normal shipments ft.com through its East-West pipeline as Hormuz disruptions mounted. Natural gas extended losses bloomberg.com for a second day as weather forecasts shifted warmer, indicating lower demand for heating and power-plant fuel.
Fixed Income
Japanese government bonds extended gains bloomberg.com tracking overnight Treasury rallies as traders increasingly price in a September Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, U.S. airline bonds weakened bloomberg.com after jet fuel costs spiked 8% on Middle East supply fears, and Chicago's planned muni bond sale bloomberg.com is testing investor appetite amid geopolitical uncertainty. China's government bond yield curve reached its steepest level in four years bloomberg.com as inflation concerns triggered by the Iran war piled pressure on longer-term debt. South African government bonds extended their worst selloff since Covid bloomberg.com as soaring oil prices and a weaker rand fueled inflation fears, forcing the central bank to consider resuming rate hikes.
Equities & Corporate News
BioNTech shares fell 14% premarket wsj.com after co-founders announced their departures and issued revenue guidance that fell short of Wall Street's forecasts. Kohl's missed sales expectations wsj.com during its fiscal fourth quarter, though profit rose as the company continued work to turn around its business. NIO joined the ranks of profitable EV makers wsj.com after reporting record sales and strong margins in the world's largest auto market. Samsung Electronics and SK planned to cancel $14 billion in treasury shares bloomberg.com as part of a broader corporate reform push in South Korea.
Geopolitics & Global Markets
The G-7 asked the IEA to prepare oil reserve release scenarios bloomberg.com as Middle East crisis roiled markets, while energy ministers met in Paris bloomberg.com to debate a possible release of oil reserves to stabilize prices. France's Macron planned Hormuz ship escorts bloomberg.com once conflict calms down, seeking to launch a joint maritime mission to escort container ships. The UAE summoned Maersk and MSC executives ft.com to express concerns about high freight rates stemming from the Iran war, while China warned of supply chain disruptions ft.com affecting its trade flows.
Real Estate & Infrastructure
United Natural Foods swung to a second-quarter profit wsj.com and boosted its fiscal-year profitability guidance, but lowered its sales outlook. Vail Resorts forecast lower profit wsj.com after sparse snow deterred skiers, now expecting net income of $144 million to $190 million for the current fiscal year, compared with its initial forecast of $201 million to $276 million. The Bay Area Rapid Transit system faced potential reductions nytimes.com after the pandemic dealt an unusually heavy blow to ridership, forcing consideration of service cuts.
Technology & Innovation
YouTube added tools to help public figures report fake videos nytimes.com as social media companies face pressure to crack down on deepfake content. Polymarket enlisted Palantir and TWG AI bloomberg.com to police its growing sports bets, a move that comes as prediction markets face increased scrutiny. Nasdaq partnered with Kraken wsj.com in plans for 24/7 tokenized stock trading, seeking approval to let investors trade digital tokens that mimic shares and trade continuously.
Emerging Markets
Colombia's primaries threw the May presidential election wide open bloomberg.com, reviving hopes for a new market-friendly administration and triggering a rebound in sovereign bonds. Argentina's bond rally stalled bloomberg.com as the country's junk rating and war fallout limited momentum, even as President Javier Milei met investors in New York to attract interest in the country's comeback story. The Philippines braced for rising costs bloomberg.com as oil's spike above $100 a barrel dragged the peso to a record low, heightening risks for an economy heavily reliant on fuel imports from the Middle East.
Private Markets & M&A
Blackstone arranged a $1.2 billion credit facility bloomberg.com for Air Trunk's expansion into Japanese data centers, part of a broader push by private equity into AI infrastructure assets across Asia-Pacific. Madison Air filed for a Nasdaq IPO bloomberg.com targeting a $500 million valuation, buoyed by three consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth in the private aviation charter market. Tikehau Capital and Stirling Square quarreled over control of an Italian bottle-cap maker bloomberg.com, while energy-tech firm Trilliant explored a sale with Jefferies bloomberg.com after attracting inquiries from potential buyers.
Consumer & Retail
Lego reported a 16% rise in consumer sales wsj.com in 2025, outperforming both a 7% rise in the global toy market and some of its rivals. Lindt shares sank 7.8% wsj.com after the chocolatier cut its guidance and said the war in the Middle East would likely hit tourism sales. UK petrol prices jumped most since 2022 bloomberg.com after oil costs surged, revealing early warning signs of a cost-of-living squeeze caused by the Iran war.
Central Banks & Policy
The European Central Bank's Muller said rate-hike chances had risen bloomberg.com but urged calm, warning officials shouldn't react hastily to the war in Iran and its implications. The Bank of England faced pressure to avoid costly intervention ft.com as Chancellor Reeves warned against "price gouging" amid mounting concerns about the economic impact of the Middle East war. China's central bank strengthened the yuan fixing by most since January bloomberg.com as authorities sought to manage currency stability amid oil price volatility.
Risk & Volatility
Wall Street tail-risk hedges rallied bloomberg.com as conflict shook markets, with investors that loaded up on volatility protection seeing gains after months of losses. The classic momentum trade faced a "full-blown panic unwind" bloomberg.com as a trifecta of troubles ushered in one of the steepest drawdowns for high-flying momentum stocks in years. Investors paid the most since July 2024 bloomberg.com to protect against turbulence in Indian shares after years of domestic liquidity-fueled calm.
Supply Chains & Industry
Japan locked in rare earths supply ft.com with an Australian miner, with the contract's price guarantee reflecting growing push by countries outside China to safeguard flows of key materials. Japanese auto-parts suppliers turned to Rusal bloomberg.com as disruptions in the aluminum trade caused by the widening conflict in the Middle East pushed several manufacturers into talks with the Russian giant. Cosan reported a $1.1 billion net loss bloomberg.com in the fourth quarter amid weakness at sugar and ethanol business Raízen SA, while a Shell clean energy bet in Brazil fell into crisis ft.com with the joint venture saddled with $11 billion in debt.
Alternative Assets
Hong Kong family offices planned more crypto and private markets exposure bloomberg.com over the next three years, according to a report commissioned by local authorities. Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan earned 6.7% last year bloomberg.com as the rising value of stocks, gold and SpaceX helped to offset an unusually large loss in private equity. Hedge-fund manager Boaz Weinstein offered to buy out frustrated investors bloomberg.com in Blue Owl and Starwood funds at discounts, saying he's just getting started with the strategy.
Market Sentiment
Emerging markets got a reprieve bloomberg.com as Trump hinted at an early end to the war, with currencies and stocks rebounding after the president's comments pushed oil prices lower and brought investors back to buy beaten-down assets. The S&P 500 futures were muted bloomberg.com as traders' conviction in the war ending waned, with the rebound in U.S. stocks stalling ahead of the bell. Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised odds of a U.S. market meltdown to 35% bloomberg.com on Iran war concerns, updating his outlook for what he described as growing risks to global markets.