Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Oil Market Turmoil
US oil bloomberg.com declined in after-close trading after President Trump told CBS the Iran war is "very complete, pretty much." Crude oil ft.com surged to near $100 a barrel, inflicting pain on motorists worldwide with the highest weekly jump in US average gas prices since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Trend riders bloomberg.com maxed out on bullish US oil bets for the first time since 2021, as algorithmic traders accelerated price momentum. Russia's President Putin bloomberg.com urged oil and gas producers to use high prices to cut debt, noting the spike will be temporary.
Global Stock Market Reactions
US stock futures bloomberg.com dropped as the oil spike boosted inflation fears, with the S&P 500 poised to extend its selloff after the biggest weekly drop since October. Japan's Nikkei bloomberg.com entered correction territory, plunging the most since April's tariff rout as climbing oil prices and Middle East tensions clouded the economic outlook. South Korean stocks bloomberg.com sank as global funds sold on Iran war risks, while Asian equities wsj.com slumped amid growing Middle East conflict. Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com reported hedge funds adding short bets on US stocks amid the rout, wagering on more pain ahead.
Central Bank Policy Shifts
Investors ft.com reversed bets on central bank rate cuts as the oil crisis deepened, with the Iran war expected to derail easing plans. Traders bloomberg.com boosted ECB and BOE rate-hike bets as energy prices soared, fueling fears of an inflation spike. Citadel Securities bloomberg.com argued markets are mispricing Fed and ECB rate paths, saying the oil-price surge makes policy divergence unlikely. South Korea's central bank bloomberg.com is expected to push back rate hikes, prioritizing market stability over near-term increases.
Energy Market Responses
G-7 countries nytimes.com held off on releasing emergency oil supplies, though finance ministers said they would consider releases. France bloomberg.com stated the G-7 is "not there yet" on organizing a global release of emergency oil inventories. EU Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis bloomberg.com said euro-area finance chiefs will discuss possible joint oil reserve releases after crude smashed through $100. US Energy Secretary Wright bloomberg.com sought to counter market warnings about an extended Middle East war, attributing the surge to a "fear premium."
Commodity Price Effects
Wheat wsj.com approached a two-year high as the impact of the oil price surge widened, with Chicago futures up nearly 5% from pre-conflict levels. China inflation bloomberg.com jumped as oil added to record holiday spending, with consumer-price growth accelerating to the quickest pace in over three years. Mexico inflation bloomberg.com jumped more than forecasts to top the target range, prompting the central bank to pause its easing cycle. South African bonds bloomberg.com plunged as the oil surge fueled inflation fears, extending their worst selloff since the Covid pandemic.
Corporate and Market Developments
JPMorgan Chase bloomberg.com turned bullish on US investment-grade bonds, expecting spreads to tighten by 12 basis points. UBS Group bloomberg.com increased its bonus pool by 10% as the Credit Suisse integration nears completion. Netflix bloomberg.com staged a dramatic stock reversal after walking away from its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. Microsoft ft.com added Anthropic AI models to its Copilot workplace tools, diversifying away from OpenAI. Strategy Inc bloomberg.com accelerated Bitcoin buying with a nearly $1.3 billion purchase, the largest in seven weeks.
Regional Market Impacts
Italy's Finance Minister Giorgetti bloomberg.com cautioned against raising ECB rates in response to Middle East fallout. Portugal Football League bloomberg.com appointed advisors for a potential stake sale in media rights. VW profit rebound ft.com is in doubt as Chinese rivals pose an "existential threat" to Europe's largest carmaker. Petrobras bloomberg.com held the line on Brazil fuel prices despite the war-driven surge in global oil markets. Venezuela oil shipment bloomberg.com was booked for China as US sanctions eased amid soaring prices.
Market Infrastructure and Trading
Kalshi and Polymarket bloomberg.com took on stock options with S&P 500 bets, offering alternatives to traditional derivatives. Balyasny Asset Management bloomberg.com saw two Europe energy traders leave during the volatile week. JPMorgan bloomberg.com warned of a potential 10% correction in the S&P 500 as war risks build. Wall Street banks bloomberg.com offered UAE staff options to relocate temporarily as attacks continue. Bank of America bloomberg.com offered a $2.75 billion loan for the Tegna acquisition.
Alternative Assets and Safe Havens
Bitcoin bloomberg.com climbed in a break with stocks amid inflation concerns, with advocates touting it as a potential inflation hedge. Gold bloomberg.com wagers hit a 16-week high as risk-off sentiment grew. Wall Street tail-risk hedges bloomberg.com rallied as conflict shook markets, with risk-hedging strategies finally showing gains after months of losses. Investors bloomberg.com awaited US inflation data with the oil rise in focus, to a series of reports including the February CPI.