Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Volatility & AI Disruption
China's AI rally bloomberg.com intensified as investors shrugged off global disruption fears, with Alibaba and ByteDance unleashing new models and promotional blitzes during the week-long new year holiday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell sharply bloomberg.com marking its first two-week loss since June, as listless trading masked record volatility beneath the surface. The placid equity market that's treaded water for months is hiding dramatic swings that whipsaw traders and threaten more turbulence ahead.
Corporate & Legal Developments
Centerview Partners ft.com settled a lawsuit over analyst Kathryn Shiber's need for 8 hours' sleep, fueling debate about junior bankers' working hours. The investment bank's settlement with the former analyst shortly before trial resolved a case that was set to examine the responsibilities of one of the most grueling jobs in finance. Separately, Latham & Watkins ft.com poached two more partners from rival Wachtell Lipton in the latest move of the legal M&A talent wars, as the New York-based Wachtell has suffered rare defections in a hot market for top deals lawyers.
Tariff Turmoil & Trade Policy
Trump's tariff ruling wsj.com sent CEOs back to company war rooms as executives tried to figure out if importers can reclaim billions in paid levies—and whether it's worth the political fight. The Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's tariffs under the IEEPA created chaos, with corporate America demanding refunds after levies assessed on imports exceeded $130 billion. Trump investing.com responded by threatening to raise the global tariff rate to 15% after the Supreme Court ruling, calling it "deeply disappointing."
Technology & AI Competition
Nvidia and OpenAI investing.com are close to finalizing a smaller $30 billion investment, as Anthropic's AI tools sent a shock wave through markets. For equity investors looking to capitalize on the newfound prominence of the closely held startup, there aren't many direct exposure options. Meanwhile, Google VP finance.yahoo.com warned that two types of AI startups may not survive the intensifying competition, as rapid advances in artificial intelligence erode established business models and create a $1 trillion identity crisis for Bitcoin caught from every direction.
Energy & Commodities
Iron ore bloomberg.com was on track for the longest streak of weekly losses since 2022, weighed by signs of a loosening market as flows improved from Australia and Chinese ports saw elevated stockpiles. Oil traders rushed to hedge Iran risk after a wild start to the year, with the oil market in the middle of its strongest start since 2022 as supply shocks and sanctions confound expectations of a glut. Repsol ft.com aims to triple Venezuelan oil output after securing a US permit, expecting production to soar over the next three years.
International Markets & Policy
Germany bloomberg.com is about to find out whether its recovery is real, with data in the coming days shedding light on whether Europe's largest economy is on the cusp of a meaningful revival or still being hampered by Donald Trump's tariffs and its own chronic structural issues. Japan bloomberg.com could be turning the page after 30 years of stagnation, with Apollo Global Management's Marc Rowan saying private capital will fill a crucial niche as Japan seeks to nurture investment. Meanwhile, India and Brazil yahoo.com signed a mining pact as Modi targets $20 billion trade in five years.
Financial Services & Banking
Ripple CEO Garlinghouse investing.com said the Clarity Act is 90% likely to pass by April, providing much-needed regulatory clarity for crypto markets. JPMorgan investing.com closed Trump accounts after the January 6 attack, while the labor secretary's husband was banned from headquarters after two staffers accused him of sexual assault. The DOJ is probing Netflix's power over filmmakers in the Warner deal review, including scrutiny of the streaming giant's behavior and whether it wields anticompetitive influence in the proposed $72 billion takeover.
Retirement & Small Business Trends
The Biggest New Fans of 401(k)s wsj.com are small businesses, with millions more small-business employees gaining access to 401(k)-style retirement plans in recent years. This result comes in part from new types of plans like the pooled employer plan, or PEP. The trend represents a significant shift in retirement savings accessibility for America's smallest employers and their workers.
Market Infrastructure & Investment
Millennium Management bloomberg.com handed Balkan's Credit Fund more money in a private push, backing Four Six Three with additional investing firepower after first committing $1 billion last year. This latest step in the multistrategy firm's expansion shows continued appetite for credit strategies despite rising default fears spreading from the leveraged loan market to retail funds that ultimately buy the debt. Investors are getting choosier about taking on credit risk as the riskiest CLO funds flash warning signs.
Regulatory & Legal Battles
Honeywell bloomberg.com is considering walking away from its acquisition of Johnson Matthey's Catalyst Technologies business, people familiar with the matter said. The potential withdrawal comes amid broader uncertainty following the Supreme Court's tariff ruling and its implications for cross-border M&A. Meanwhile, Umicore investing.com reported widening EV battery losses in its FY25 results, highlighting the challenges facing legacy automakers and suppliers in the electric vehicle transition.
Sports & Entertainment
Netflix wsj.com faces pressure from Trump to oust Susan Rice from its board, with the president's comments coming as Netflix tries to secure a deal and antitrust approval to buy Warner's studios and the HBO streaming service. The streaming giant is also under DOJ investigation regarding its proposed $72 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, including scrutiny of its behavior and potential anticompetitive practices. Trump has demanded Netflix remove the former Obama official or "pay the consequences" amid the $108 billion bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery assets.