Public Markets 24 Hours

Last updated: July 3, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Public Markets Overview

Global markets experienced a mixed trading session as investors digested a flurry of economic data and geopolitical developments. European equities reached record highs, buoyed by optimism surrounding potential Federal Reserve rate holds, while U.S. stocks saw significant outflows. The dollar weakened following cooler-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which also supported a rise in gold prices. Meanwhile, oil futures saw a dip as OPEC+ discussions signaled potential output adjustments, though geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence shipping routes and energy supply concerns.

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures dropped 1.3% in early Asian trade as OPEC+ signaled potential output increases, while gold held steady near $2,340/oz despite a weakening dollar. In fixed income, Japanese government bonds extended their rally tracking overnight gains in U.S. Treasurys as traders priced in a September Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, Brent crude faced downward pressure, with Citigroup forecasting a potential slump to $60 a barrel by year-end as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ease. OPEC's crude oil production surged last month as Persian Gulf members restored exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a trend that has seen the number of ships passing via the waterway quadruple over the past week. Japan has significantly reduced its reliance on natural gas, opting for more coal-fired power generation as Hormuz disruptions tightened LNG supplies. Total Energies SE is now offering millions of barrels of Iraqi crude for prompt delivery to Asia, adding to a market already brimming with supply. Russia has hiked June subsidies to refiners as domestic fuel shortages bite, with subsidy payouts jumping more than six-fold from a year earlier. Russia's shadow tankers are also avoiding the English Channel after European naval interceptions forced sanctioned vessels onto a circuitous route.

Equities & Investment

European stocks closed at a record high, marking their fourth consecutive week of gains as investors remained optimistic about the Federal Reserve holding off on rate hikes. This rally followed a broad sell-off in European semiconductor stocks, which rebounded after their Asian peers showed gains. South Korean stocks jumped 5% after a turbulent week driven by AI-related swings, highlighting investor skittishness over the sustainability of the AI boom. U.S. stocks, however, experienced their largest outflows in over, according to Bank of America, as investors turned away at the fastest pace since March. The AI trade itself is showing signs of strain, with cracks appearing in the artificial-intelligence sector, affecting tech-heavy indexes. Investors are actively tracking AI token prices to discern the next moves in this volatile market. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board announced a significant $1.75 billion investment to support EQT AB’s artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. Meanwhile, Carlyle Group has hired banks for a potential $400 million India IPO of its healthcare revenue cycle management business.

Corporate & Deal News

Top investors, including Ninety One, Aviva Investors, and Fidelity International, have opposed a £5.7 billion private equity bid for energy group DCC, led by KKR and Bridgepoint. Burberry's top executive team has bought into the company following the introduction of a new reward policy, as the fashion group reported operating profit under its new chief. Shell faces allegations of misleading UK courts in a long-running Nigeria pollution case, with the trial set to begin next year. France's Thales will record a charge after Germany scrapped a frigate procurement program. In the ticketing sector, Stub Hub is under investigation by the Texas attorney general over alleged ‘ghost ticketing’ practices during the World Cup. The UK, Italian, and Japanese fighter jet venture secured a $6.14 billion contract for a new stealth fighter jet. Renk Group is nearing a deal to acquire UK’s David Brown Defence for approximately $200 million, expanding its exposure to the naval sector. In the digital realm, Starling Bank plans to cut jobs to simplify operations as profits dip, while Revolut and Monzo are advised to heed Atom Bank’s challenges in scaling lending operations. Gymshark founder Ben Francis is in talks to buy back a stake from General Atlantic to cement control over the fitness brand.

Economic & Policy Watch

Argentina's central bank has extended maturities on $6 billion in repos to ease government debt burdens leading into the 2027 presidential election. The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stressed the need vigilance at the next rate decision, while Emmanuel Moulin indicated the ECB is in a "good position" after its June rate hike. European Union finance ministers will be joined by ECB President Christine Lagarde at their next Ecofin meeting. China's services activity eased less than expected in June, suggesting a pick-up in economic momentum, while Vietnam's economy unexpectedly grew by 8.39% in the second quarter, with trade and inflation also showing positive signs. Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled a new pipeline project, aiming to position Canada as an energy-exporting superpower and break dependence on the US. The IMF is joining a backlash against "opaque" debt instruments, initiating a crackdown on total return swaps in Nigeria. Separately, the IMF is also joining efforts to make debt transparent. The U.S. dollar remained weak against a basket of currencies following worse-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. U.S. officials reportedly believed Israel was plotting to kill Iranian negotiators, a move that could have derailed peace talks.

Geopolitics & International Affairs

The Strait of Hormuz has seen increased transits as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds, with the number of ships passing through the waterway quadrupling over the past week. China has urged "unimpeded passage" through the Strait, amid discussions of potential fees for passage. Qatar has resumed LNG tanker traffic through the Strait after a brief pause. The conflict in Ukraine escalates, with Crimea becoming increasingly crucial due to drone strikes and fuel shortages, putting pressure on President Vladimir Putin. NATO's upcoming meeting in Ankara is seen as an opportunity to close sanctions loopholes funding Russia's war effort. Meanwhile, Japan's annual wage negotiations concluded with average pay gains exceeding 5% for the third year, underscoring economic resilience and supporting the Bank of Japan's stance on interest rates. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure aims for a 2027 budget that brings the deficit below 5%.

Market Trends & Outlooks

Wealth managers are facing warnings about "deliberate obfuscation" regarding fees, with the FCA urging the use of "plain English." Investors are reportedly warming to Andy Burnham but remain hesitant on long-end gilts. AMP Ltd. has divested bonds from some pension funds, stating that sovereign debt is no longer a reliable hedge. The AI trade is showing signs of volatility, with investor sentiment growing uneasy about the profitability of massive investments in the sector. European chip stocks have rebounded, following their Asian peers. The share of private software debt down more than 20% was higher in 2023 than at any point in the past five years, indicating a rough patch even before AI fears triggered a "Saa S-pocalypse." The global food price situation is easing, with cereals, sugar, and dairy products becoming less expensive, though El Niño risks add uncertainty. Analyst expectations for S&P 500 earnings are rising at their fastest rate since the rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic, fueling fears of an "earnings bubble." The U.K. financial services sector is being assessed for its global standing, with a focus on London's position.