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Last updated: May 18, 2026, 5:31 PM ET

Energy & Commodities

Oil prices edged higher as the Iran-Israel ceasefire remained tenuous, with Brent crude holding above $65 a barrel amid persistent Middle East supply concerns. The United States extended its Russian oil waiver for 30 days in an attempt to ease domestic fuel costs, while Iran's main export terminal showed no tankers loading for at least the tenth consecutive day, underscoring the mounting pressure from U.S. naval operations in the Persian Gulf. Natural gas futures topped $3 per million British thermal units for the first time since March as hotter weather forecasts boosted cooling demand expectations, and European gas prices rose above €50 per megawatt-hour as the regional conflict showed little sign of resolution.

Fixed Income & Credit Markets

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell in March from record highs as overseas investors dumped short-term bills while adding to longer-dated securities, part of a broader global bond selloff that pushed the 10-year German Bund yield to a 15-year high. Vanguard Group maintained its Treasury overweight positioning, arguing that 10-year yields near 4.3% are approaching the top of their expected range for the year, while Japan's 10-year JGB yield outpaced Topix dividend yields by the widest margin since 2007, potentially triggering rotation from equities to bonds. In corporate credit, Brightline Florida's senior bonds may recover just 44 cents on the dollar in a restructuring scenario, and Frigorífico Concepción's meatpacker bonds plunged to 19 cents amid default fears as debt obligations exceed cash reserves by more than threefold.

Equity Markets & M&A

The S&P 500 lost less than 0.1% on Monday as investors awaited earnings from Nvidia and major retailers, while the Dow industrials rose 0.3% ahead of key technology sector results. Akamai Technologies launched a $2.6 billion convertible bond offering to fund cloud infrastructure spending, and UBS BB hired Claudia Bollina Mesquita as head of equity capital markets from Bradesco BBI to strengthen Brazilian investment banking coverage. Darsana Capital Partners has nearly 60% of its assets allocated to SpaceX shares, positioning the hedge fund to make over $10 billion from the private rocket maker's potential IPO, while Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed after just two hours of jury deliberations, delivering a legal victory to Sam Altman's artificial intelligence company.

Geopolitical Risk & Market Impact

President Trump authorized but held off on new strikes against Iran, maintaining market uncertainty as the conflict enters its third week with no clear resolution in sight. The U.S. restricted entry from Congo, Uganda and South Sudan for 30 days due to Ebola outbreaks, while Uganda postponed its annual religious holiday following confirmed cases in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. Investors flocked to commodity ETFs as Iran war tensions fueled energy inflation concerns, with Invesco reporting significant inflows into broad commodities funds, even as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted with few foreign vessels attempting passage.

Corporate Developments

NextEra Energy agreed to acquire Dominion Energy for $67 billion in stock, creating a $400 billion utility giant stretching from Florida to Virginia data centers, while Morgan Stanley hired JPMorgan dealmaker Sebastian Bladt to strengthen German M&A coverage amid European consolidation activity. Publicis agreed to acquire LiveRamp for $2.55 billion in an AI-driven marketing push, marking the French company's largest acquisition since 2019, and France's Lescure projected second-quarter economic recovery to help avoid recession despite ongoing geopolitical headwinds.

Regulatory & Policy Developments

U.S. regulators are poised to reshape bank examination ratings, potentially overhauling the secret process used by examiners to evaluate financial institutions as part of a broader transparency initiative. The White House reviewed a ban on trading through best price on stocks, considering amendments to decades-old regulations governing investor execution quality, while Justice Department announced a $1.8 billion fund to settle the IRS lawsuit stemming from Trump's leaked tax returns. Commerzbank advised shareholders against accepting UniCredit's offer, arguing the proposal undervalues the German lender and lacks credible strategic rationale.

International Markets

Mexico signed an agreement for a floating gas power plant to meet Yucatan peninsula electricity demand, part of President Sheinbaum's infrastructure push, while Royal Caribbean shares fell after the president ordered a review of the cruise operator's water park project in Quintana Roo. Spain's ACS offered a €2.2 billion stake sale to fund data center development, representing approximately 6% dilution to fund AI infrastructure, and Ghana sought 30% of large gold mines' output for local refineries to boost foreign exchange reserves. Zambia formed a gold venture to formalize artisanal mining and build processing capacity in southern African regions experiencing rapid production growth.