Public Markets 24 Hours

Last updated: May 12, 2026, 5:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Energy Markets

Crude oil edged higher as continued uncertainty over a diplomatic resolution between the U.S. and Iran kept prices elevated, even as U.S. indexes previously hit new highs on AI and energy strength. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing severe supply disruption, with Saudi Aramco warning that oil markets are losing 100 million barrels weekly, pushing gasoline and jet fuel inventories toward "critically low levels". This conflict is also leading to unusual supply chain reactions; for instance, Japan’s largest potato-chip maker Calbee decided to remove color from packaging due to rising petroleum-based ink costs, a direct consequence of the commodity crunch. Meanwhile, in energy infrastructure, damage to the Habshan gas facility in the UAE from alleged Iranian attacks means full repairs will not be completed until 2027, underscoring the conflict's lasting impact on Gulf energy exports.

Central Banks & Fixed Income

European Central Bank policymakers must act if the Iran war jeopardizes price stability, according to ECB board member Nagel, even as the bank continues its pre-decision analysis for next month. This geopolitical risk is being priced into sovereign debt, with U.K. government bonds slumping severely, sending long-term yields to their highest levels in nearly three decades amid domestic political turmoil surrounding Labour leader Keir Starmer. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields are under upward pressure, with ING forecasting the 10-year could soon approach 4.5% if the Middle East stalemate persists. In contrast, Japanese government bonds saw firm demand at auction due to higher yields, even as the yen experienced sharp volatility following a visit by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Corporate Activity & M&A

Private equity firm EQT AB submitted its fourth and final takeover offer for U.K. testing specialist Intertek Group Plc, sweetening the bid to approximately $12.8 billion, including dividends, to overcome persistent shareholder pressure for a deal. In other M&A news, Bain Capital and LY Corp. jointly offered a takeover bid for Tokyo’s $3.7 billion price comparison site Kakaku.com Inc., rivaling a separate bid from EQT. On the licensing front, Bristol-Myers Squibb inked a massive collaboration and licensing deal with China’s Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co., potentially valued at up to $15.2 billion, as the U.S. firm seeks to leverage Chinese research capabilities. Meanwhile, BMO Financial Group agreed to sell its transportation and vendor-finance businesses, encompassing a loan and lease portfolio of about $10.6 billion, to Stonepeak.

Corporate Earnings & Sector Outlooks

Global demand for gas turbines, while expected to decline slightly in 2024 from 2025 levels, remains strong due to the ongoing build-out of data centers, according to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. European telecom operator Vodafone swung to a pretax profit, driven by strong organic service revenue growth and the consolidation of Three UK, validating its strategic pivot toward core markets like Germany and the UK. German insurer Munich Re reported a first-quarter net profit of €1.71 billion, noting only a marginal claims impact from the Middle East war, though the regulator is now increasing pressure on insurers to fix shortcomings in their growing private credit exposure, which Munich Re itself holds up to €2.5 billion ($2.9 in. In pharmaceuticals, Bayer’s net profit surged due to stronger performance in its agricultural division and a gain from divesting an antibiotics business.

Asia Markets & Foreign Policy

The Sino-American relationship remains tense, with Beijing viewing Trump's America as a declining empire, while President Xi Jinping is expected to press the U.S. President on arms sales to Taiwan during their upcoming summit. China’s central bank has explicitly warned of imported inflation risks stemming from rising commodity prices fueled by Middle East conflict, though some LNG buyers are beginning to replace disrupted shipments. In corporate Japan, Hitachi Ltd. is considering the sale of an 8% stake in Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. via block trades, potentially raising capital for buybacks. Furthermore, Taiwanese brokerages are seeking nearly $1 billion in loans to fuel expansion as local stock market trading booms.

Regulatory Scrutiny & Infrastructure

The global shipping industry is facing new security measures, as Qatar mandates that vessels at its primary LNG port turn off transponders as a safety precaution. In the U.S., the Justice Department subpoenaed The Wall Street Journal regarding an article on military action deliberations in Iran, raising press freedom concerns, while elsewhere, SEC scrutiny intensified on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's business dealings ahead of a potential IPO. Elsewhere, Ethiopian Airlines Group is engaging in early talks with Airbus to purchase both regional and widebody aircraft for continental expansion. Finally, Florida’s struggling Brightline private railroad faces scrutiny as restructuring looms, potentially ranking among the largest municipal bond restructurings ever, alongside debt issues seen with Puerto Rico.