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Last updated: March 25, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Turmoil Drives Commodity & Currency Volatility

Global markets grappled with escalating tensions stemming from the ongoing war involving Iran as oil prices climbed 1.3% amid conflicting diplomatic signals, while Asian currencies crumbled as governments scrambled to secure dollar-denominated fuel supplies. The energy crisis deepened across the supply chain, forcing the UK to approve a £100mn plan to temporarily restart a carbon dioxide plant to mitigate shortages, even as Saudi Arabia ramped up shipments from Red Sea terminals to circumvent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In response to spiking energy costs, BASF raised prices sharply again for its chemical products, and the Bank of France trimmed its growth forecast while lifting inflation projections for 2026.

Precious metals saw mixed reactions to the geopolitical stress; gold declined slightly following a major technical correction after Wednesday’s strong settlement, but it steadied later as traders absorbed varying reports regarding US-Iran peace negotiations. Meanwhile, investors in Japanese equities are hedging against further drops due to the persistent Middle East conflict, which has also contributed to Japan posting its longest streak of first-day IPO flops in six years, indicating shaken investor sentiment across the region. The fallout is also creating opportunities, with European energy stocks having room to extend outperformance as investors begin pricing in structural supply risks, and LNG buyers are urgently hunting for US cargoes following a major outage at Qatar’s largest facility.

Corporate Finance & Credit Markets Under Scrutiny

The sprawling $1.8 trillion private credit industry is showing divergent health, with Blackstone’s Kenneth Caplan reporting low default levels across its portfolio, contrasting sharply with Ares Management Corp.’s private credit fund posting its steepest monthly loss on record in February. Further evidence of market friction emerged as the New York Fed’s index signaled increased dislocations in the U.S. corporate bond market during March, where the high-grade sector experienced more strain than high-yield debt. Amid this backdrop, regulators are preparing to raise the bar for designating non-bank financial firms as too-big-to-fail, while Morgan Stanley observed less liquidity in the Treasury market linked to war volatility, suggesting forced selling of two-year notes.

Investment banking activity is being redefined by shifting capital dynamics; Goldman Sachs M&A leadership anticipates massive capital pools will eventually drive dealmaking despite current volatility, and Bank of America launched a dedicated private capital M&A team to focus on private equity exits as buyout firms hold assets longer. In specific transactions, Janus Henderson’s junk loan was boosted to $2.6 billion to support its acquisition by Trian Fund Management, while Electronic Arts’ dollar debt rallied following the pricing of its record buyout financing. Separately, European luxury group Dolce & Gabbana is engaging lenders as earnings pressure from weak global demand strains debt covenants.

Tech Valuations & Regulatory Setbacks

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation in its ambitious initial public offering, prompting questions about whether investors will embrace yet another 13-digit tech valuation, while Meta continues its structural shift toward artificial intelligence, evidenced by recent layoffs affecting 700 employees alongside new stock programs for executives. In litigation, social media giants faced accountability as juries in landmark trials found Meta and YouTube negligent for designing addictive features that caused mental health distress in young users, with one jury awarding $3 million in damages with Instagram’s owner paying the majority. Concurrently, the Supreme Court curtailed liability for internet service providers by ruling Cox Communications could not be held responsible for user copyright infringement, which nine Justices rejected as an expansion of secondary liability.

Political & Legal Developments

Domestic politics saw bipartisan condemnation of the Trump administration’s reported move to ease oil sanctions on Russia and Iran, with critics warning the policy benefits U.S. adversaries while lawmakers attempt to assuage voter pain at the pump. In regulatory appointments, the administration is delaying the nomination of a new C.D.C. Director while seeking a candidate aligned with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s agenda but not his unpopular vaccine stance. On the judicial front, former Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin faces an arrest order for contempt after failing to produce financial records sought by his estranged son across a seven-year period, while Canada’s Supreme Court is hearing a case challenging Quebec’s ban on religious symbols and its power to suspend constitutional rights.