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Weak demand hits Japan’s 30‑year bond auction

Bloomberg Markets •
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Japan’s finance ministry sold 30‑year government bonds on Wednesday, recording the weakest demand since June 2025. The auction’s bid‑to‑cover ratio slipped to 2.94, down from 3.49 in the prior round and below the 12‑month average of 3.4. Yield declines made the long tenor less attractive, prompting a sharp sell‑off in bond futures. The sale, totalling 2 trillion yen, was aimed at funding the fiscal deficit.

Analysts linked the tepid response to falling yields and heightened inflation worries sparked by the Middle East conflict. Japan’s 30‑year yield, which peaked at its highest level since debut last month, has since eased, eroding the premium investors sought. SMBC Nikko’s Miki Den warned that further yield drops could suppress demand even more. The drop reflects market scepticism about curbing debt as the yen weakens.

Investors now anticipate the Bank of Japan’s next move, with officials poised to consider a 0.25 percentage‑point rate hike this month and a possible second increase later in the year. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s easing stance and pending fiscal decisions on a sales‑tax cut add uncertainty. The weak auction signals that any further yield decline could tighten liquidity in Japan’s long‑bond market, raising borrowing costs.