Mexico has regained full access to the US sugar market after years of restricted trade. The USDA now projects Mexican sugar imports will reach 1.15 million metric tons for the 2026-2027 cycle, a 512% increase over the prior year's estimate, according to the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published July 10, 2026.

At current prices, the additional exports could generate up to 4.76 billion pesos (approximately $250 million USD) in revenue paid by Mexico's sugar industry to domestic cane producers, the Mexican Presidency confirmed. The surge follows direct talks between President Claudia Sheinbaum and US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, who visited Mexico in November 2025.

The US-Mexico sugar conflict dates to 2014, when the US Commerce Department imposed anti-dumping duties. Suspension Agreements set minimum prices and volume caps, renegotiated in 2017 under the first Trump administration, effectively limiting Mexican access to roughly half the pre-dispute volume. The new deal corrects that imbalance, allowing Mexican sugar to compete on more equal terms.

Growers across Veracruz, Jalisco, Oaxaca, and Puebla stand to benefit, though analysts note that Mexico's domestic milling capacity and port infrastructure at Veracruz and Lazaro Cardenas will need to scale rapidly. Resolving the sugar dispute, the oldest and most contentious trade irritant, signals both governments are willing to address legacy trade frictions.