A larger stake raises the likelihood of the European Central Bank mandating consolidation, which would impose stricter capital requirements on UniCredit. Orcel’s two-year pursuit of Commerzbank aims to position UniCredit as a dominant German player, but faces resistance from Commerzbank’s board and the government, which holds >12% in the bank. The deal’s success hinges on final regulatory approvals and investor appetite ahead of the June 16 deadline.