Treasuries rose Thursday as May's personal consumption expenditures index missed forecasts, easing bets on another Federal Reserve hike. The 2‑year yield slipped more than four basis points to 4.10%, while the benchmark 10‑year fell to 4.37% and the 30‑year touched 4.82%, its lowest since March. Investors shifted to safety amid lingering inflation concerns and a softer oil market, this week significantly.

Rate‑swap markets reflected the change, pricing only 33 basis points of tightening by December versus 36 basis points a day earlier. The probability of a hike next month fell to roughly one‑in‑three. Core PCE, which strips food and energy, rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, matching expectations, while annual headline inflation eased to 4.1%. The softer reading eased pressure on the Fed’s policy stance.

Analysts linked the dip to declining oil prices after the Iran‑related spike and a slide in tech stocks that boosted demand for safe‑haven assets. Options traders crowded into Treasury calls betting yields will stay below 4.4%. Attention now turns to a July 1 seven‑year note auction, expected to price around 4.25%. The result will hint at investor appetite for longer‑dated debt and could shape rate expectations for the coming months.