Phil Serafino Strategist Paulsen warns US stocks are due for a correction after recent records. With $100 oil, 5% Treasury yields, and an elevated dollar creating pressure, a 15% drop in the S&P 500 is possible within three to five months. Paulsen notes history shows these three factors simultaneously weighing on the index have preceded significant declines. While blockbuster earnings and AI enthusiasm provide support, the veteran investor predicts investors will soon feel the impact of rising macro headwinds.
Taiwan's Taiex Index has outperformed South Korea's Kospi by 23 percentage points last quarter, the widest margin since 2000. Deeper AI supply chain linkages and stronger earnings outlook drive this optimism. Korea's market leadership remains concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix, making it more vulnerable to memory cycle doubts. Investors there absorbed big losses from speculative mania this year. M&G Investments' Vikas Pershad notes Taiwan offers broader earnings support from volume, while Korea's near-term gains come from price.
As equity investors enter a pivotal year, South Korea and Taiwan lead the global AI trade. The distinction lies not just in AI exposure, but in the nature of supporting earnings. Taiwan's volume-driven upgrades are stickier, whereas Korea's price-driven gains may be near-term limited.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing