Standard Bank Group Ltd, Africa's largest lender by assets, says South Africa's economy is approaching escape velocity — a self-sustaining growth trajectory — as structural constraints that have suppressed output for years begin to ease. The assessment marks a notable shift from the bank's cautious stance of the past decade, when power shortages and logistics failures capped GDP growth near 1%.

Progress on the electricity crisis has been the most tangible driver. Eskom's energy availability factor has climbed above 70% for sustained periods, ending the rolling blackouts that shaved an estimated 2-3 percentage points off annual growth. Parallel reforms at Transnet are slowly restoring freight-rail capacity, easing the commodity-export bottleneck that cost the economy billions in lost revenue.

The May 2024 election produced a Government of National Unity that has maintained market-friendly fiscal policy while accelerating structural reforms. The rand has strengthened 8% against the dollar since the vote, and foreign investors have returned to local bonds, pushing 10-year yields below 11% for the first time since 2021.

For investors, the inflection point means South African equities — trading at a 40% discount to emerging-market peers — may finally re-rate if reform momentum survives the GNU's inevitable policy friction. The risk remains implementation: electricity stability is fragile, and logistics backlogs will take years to clear.