Shell Plc warned that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes will hold steady in 2026 as the Hormuz Strait bottleneck limits shipments. The energy major said the choke point, tightened by ongoing Middle East hostilities, is curbing cargo movements that otherwise would have risen with demand recovery. Analysts view the flat outlook as a direct signal of supply‑side stress, and raises concerns for downstream users.

Shell’s forecast reflects a broader market pause, where buyers postpone new contracts until flow certainty returns. With Europe still seeking diversification from Russian pipeline gas, the stalled LNG trade threatens pricing volatility and could pressure margins for traders and downstream refiners. The company expects the impasse to ease once alternative routes reopen and regional tensions de‑escalate, and may trigger renegotiations of existing supply agreements.

Looking ahead, Shell projects a modest rebound in LNG supply in 2027 as shipping lanes normalize and new projects come online. The 2027 uptick will likely restore growth momentum, but investors should watch geopolitical developments that could again disrupt flows. For now, the flat 2026 picture underscores how regional conflict directly reshapes global energy trade patterns. The outlook will influence pricing benchmarks throughout the year.