Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak told Interfax that the UAE's decision to quit OPEC will not spark an immediate price war. He argued that a war cannot unfold while the market faces a genuine shortage, noting that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut and oil flows are severely constrained. Global benchmarks have already edged higher as traders price in the supply gap.

The move raises questions about OPEC’s ability to balance supply, especially as Emirati officials have hinted at increasing output to capture market share. Novak said neither Russia nor Saudi Arabia has discussed the UAE’s exit, and he stressed that the OPEC+ alliance continues to mitigate market risks during the Iran‑related crisis. Analysts warn that any surge in UAE output could pressure OPEC+ to adjust quotas, complicating coordination.

Despite the UAE’s departure, Novak reaffirmed Moscow’s commitment to stay within OPEC+ and to pursue its investment strategy. He argued the coalition’s coordination helps preserve industry development and steady interaction among member states, suggesting that short‑term supply constraints will dominate pricing dynamics rather than a competitive price battle. Investors will watch quarterly reports for signs of production shifts, as oil prices remain volatile amid geopolitical tension.